Третий раунд заполнения GERD: возможен ли выход из тупика?

Международная жизнь. 2022. № 8. С. 64–71.

Отинов Д. А.

This article, taking into account the events of the most recent time, reveals the topic of confrontation in the use of the Nile water resources between Egypt and Ethiopia, which escalated due to the implementation of the third stage of filling the reservoir of the Renaissance dam. The traditional formats of negotiation and mediation have not led to the dispute solution and are unlikely to contribute to finding a compromise this time. The problem of the Renaissance dam is associated with a number of factors that increase the likelihood of an armed clash. Increasing internal instability in Ethiopia, along with the escalating Sudanese-Ethiopian border conflict and the ongoing drought in the region, could lead to unpredictable developments. In such a situation, it is highly likely that Ethiopia's uncompromising strategy of unilateral actions to fill the reservoir without agreement with the downstream countries may change.

Keywords: водные конфликты, Египет, Судан, Egypt, Sudan, Эфиопия, водная политика, water policy, water conflicts, Ethiopia, Nile, Нил