Regional Security: Analysis of the Emergency Management Effectiveness Based on the Scenario Approach

Advances in Systems Science and Applications. 2017. Vol. 17. No. 1. P. 9–24.

Shults V., Кульба В. В., Заикин О. А., Шелков А. Б., Чернов И. В.

The paper analyses the effectiveness of the scenario analysis and modeling methods for solving the planning and operational control problems of in the processes of prevention and elimination of the causes and effects of man-made disasters, industrial catastrophes and emergencies. The scenario approach belongs to a class of object-oriented methods used to represent information about the state of a plant and an environment, which is necessary to generate control actions for the rescue measures and activities, as well as disaster management. The main feature discussed in this paper is a class of industrial safety management tasks based on the scenario approach which have to be developed as well as the general normative framework that allows to fundamentally change the approach to building models of an emergency. The research shows that in this case the procedure of forming the base model using a comprehensive analysis of existing technical regulations, norms and standards were quite effective. The results of modeling and scenario analysis of the processes, elimination of technological accidents consequences on transport infrastructure of metropolises are presented in the paper.

Keywords: simulation, emergency, man-made disasters, scenario analysis, Management