Влияние водородной энергетики на устойчивое развитие стран Юго-Восточной Азии

Юго-Восточная Азия: актуальные проблемы развития. 2025. Т. 2. № 2 (67). С. 43–65.

Ванина С. С.

Against the backdrop of economic, resource, and climate changes, a pressing task for the global community is the development of new and the updating of existing global initiatives capable of addressing contemporary challenges. One area that could significantly impact the long-term development of the global economy is the advancement of hydrogen technologies, which involves replacing fossil energy carriers and storage systems with renewable alternatives. The consequences of this development could profoundly affect Southeast Asian countries, which place great emphasis on building a sustainable and accessible energy sector. Currently, the region accounts for about 4% of global energy consumption. At the same time, since 2010, these countries have contributed over 11% of the growth in global energy demand, and according to stated plans, this figure could exceed 25% by 2035. Against this backdrop, many states in the region demonstrate a strong commitment to actively participating in the emerging global low-carbon energy market. However, the question of justifying priority development scenarios and the specialization of individual countries within evolving value chains remains relevant and requires further research.

This study evaluates sustainable development indicators in Southeast Asian countries within the context of various hydrogen energy evolution scenarios. Based on the findings, priority directions are substantiated and compared with current policies in the region.

Keywords: сценарный анализ, устойчивое развитие, Цели устойчивого развития (ЦУР), scenario analysis, sustainable development, водородная энергетика, hydrogen energy, Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), панельная векторная авторегрессия, глобальная инициатива, global initiative, Страны Юго-Восточной Азии, Southeast Asian countries, panel vector autoregression (PVAR)