Динамика потенциалов международного влияния государств (по материалам проекта “Политический атлас современностиˮ)

Общественные науки и современность. 2019. № 1. С. 39–59.

Akhremenko A. S., Mironyuk M.

The article presents the results of the authors’ calculation of the index of potential of international influence for 191 (194) countries of the world over a 20-year period based on three points in time: 1995, 2005 and 2015. The calculation of the index is based on the methodology proposed ten years earlier in the framework of the “Political Atlas of the Modern World” project. Data are analyzed by means of factor analysis and logistic regression using learning samples, and an alternative calculation strategy is proposed using the principal component method. Based on the results of measurements and their subsequent analysis, the authors attempt to give some preliminary answers to questions concerning the most important trends and factors of the dynamics of international influence. These include, in particular, the changes in the composition of the “club of global leaders”, the nature of the distribution of influence among the countries as well as the key factors of strengthening or weakening of the potentials of individual countries.

Keywords: государство, факторный анализ, state, метод главных компонент, логистическая регрессия, method of principal components, logistic regression, factor analysis, international influence, международное влияние, Political atlas of the modern world, index of the potential of international influence, Политический атлас современности, индекс потенциала международного влияния