Stress Scenario Development: Global Challenges for the Russian Agricultural Sector
Having reviewed existing global energy forecasts made by reputable multilateral and national government agencies, major energy corporations and specialized consulting firms, the authors noticed that most of them are by and large based on extrapolation of conventional long-term trends depicting gradual growth of fossil fuels demand and catching-up supply. Unlike this approach the paper focuses on the possible cases when conventional trends are broken, supply-demand imbalances become huge and the situation in the global energy markets is rapidly and dramatically changing with severe consequences for Russian economy, seriously dependent on fossil fuels exports. Revealing these stress scenarios and major drivers leading to their realization are in the focus of the research. Basing on STEEPV approach the authors start from analyzing various combinations of factors capable to launch stress scenarios for Russian economy. Formulating concrete stress scenarios and assessing their negative impact on Russian economy constitute the next step of the analysis. In conclusion the paper underlines the urgency to integrate stress analysis related to global energy trends into the Russian national systems of technology foresight and strategic planning, which are now in the early stages of development.
Automated identification of new technology trends (trend monitoring, trend hunting, trend watch) is among the hot topics in technology management. Despite many beneficial results in this field, almost no solutions allow users to escape from getting too general or garbage results which make it impossible to identify trends at the stage of weak signals. Lack of attention is paid to automated labeling and merging (for the ‘same’ trends).
Our approach aimed at overcoming such drawbacks is based on the ‘BlackBox’ principle. The concept of a technology trend (TT) is characterized by a complex nature, low formalization level, blurred boundaries, and high degree of domain dependency leading to the need for expert knowledge. For all that, ‘Big Data’ in IT and ‘Genome Editing’ in Healthcare should have some similar features which actually allow us to name both phenomena ‘a TT’. This leads us to an idea of hunting for domain independent ‘external signs’ (trend indicators) while letting a TT itself stay a black box for an observer.
We employ Gartner’s Hype Cycle in our methodology. We build an elaborate ontology of a TT and a system of indicators of TTs ‘presence’ in documents of various genres. The indicators are interrelated with the ontology through linguistic and extra linguistic markers. Both markers and text genres are mapped onto the phases of a technology life cycle. The ontology-driven information extraction (IE) is carried out.
Future-oriented technology analysis methods can play a significant role in enabling early warning signal detection and pro-active policy action which will help to better prepare policy- and decision-makers in today’s complex and inter-dependent environments. This paper analyses the use of different horizon scanning approaches and methods as applied in the Scanning for Emerging Science and Technology Issues project. A comparative analysis is provided as well as a brief evaluation the needs of policy-makers if they are to identify areas in which policy needs to be formulated. This paper suggests that the selection of the best scanning approaches and methods is subject to contextual and content issues. At the same time, there are certain issues which characterise horizon scanning processes, methods and results that should be kept in mind by both practitioners and policy-makers.
Smoking is a problem, bringing signifi cant social and economic costs to Russiansociety. However, ratifi cation of the World health organization Framework conventionon tobacco control makes it possible to improve Russian legislation accordingto the international standards. So, I describe some measures that should be taken bythe Russian authorities in the nearest future, and I examine their effi ciency. By studyingthe international evidence I analyze the impact of the smoke-free areas, advertisementand sponsorship bans, tax increases, etc. on the prevalence of smoking, cigaretteconsumption and some other indicators. I also investigate the obstacles confrontingthe Russian authorities when they introduce new policy measures and the public attitudetowards these measures. I conclude that there is a number of easy-to-implementanti-smoking activities that need no fi nancial resources but only a political will.
One of the most important indicators of company's success is the increase of its value. The article investigates traditional methods of company's value assessment and the evidence that the application of these methods is incorrect in the new stage of economy. So it is necessary to create a new method of valuation based on the new main sources of company's success that is its intellectual capital.
We address the external effects on public sector efficiency measures acquired using Data Envelopment Analysis. We use the health care system in Russian regions in 2011 to evaluate modern approaches to accounting for external effects. We propose a promising method of correcting DEA efficiency measures. Despite the multiple advantages DEA offers, the usage of this approach carries with it a number of methodological difficulties. Accounting for multiple factors of efficiency calls for more complex methods, among which the most promising are DMU clustering and calculating local production possibility frontiers. Using regression models for estimate correction requires further study due to possible systematic errors during estimation. A mixture of data correction and DMU clustering together with multi-stage DEA seems most promising at the moment. Analyzing several stages of transforming society’s resources into social welfare will allow for picking out the weak points in a state agency’s work.