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Approaches to disruptive change: The contribution of complexity science to futures studies
Futures. 2020. Vol. 124. P. 1–12.
We set out to establish the place of Weak Signals at the conceptual intersection between the fields of futures and complexity studies as a qualitative counterpart to the so-called Early Warning Signals (of regime shift). After briefly presenting the scope of the Weak Signal concept and associated problems with positioning such a controversial construct against the complexity field, we investigate how theoretical and practical implications of studying qualitative changes in a complex system’s state allow for particular classes of phenomena to announce impactful events in advance. Finally, we reflect on the prospective ways of augmenting the Weak Signals concept by fusing it with the notion of Early Warning Signals and the consequent opportunities provided by bridging the fields of complexity and futures studies.
Kozlov N., Semenova M., Journal of Corporate Finance Research 2026 Vol. 20 No. 2 P. 108–135
This paper introduces a novel approach to identifying and operationalizing political connections of banks. We manually code 2,598 bankers who owned or worked in 115 Russian banks between 2015 and 2021 to classify political connections and uncover their institutional patterns through cluster analysis. We propose a set of variables that capture the origins, relevance, and ...
Added: July 6, 2026
Grebnev L., Вопросы философии 2025 № 6 С. 105–116
The relevance of the topic is related to the fact that after the complete abandonment of real values in the 1970s of the main means of international settlements - the US dollar – there is a growing feeling that money increasingly represents an illusory reality. The article begins with an analysis of the illusions associated ...
Added: July 6, 2026
Volkova N., Кочетков Н. В., Чикер В. А., Психологическая наука и образование 2026 Т. 31 № 3 С. 35–49
Context and relevance. Artificial intelligence is a technology with the potential to fundamentally transform all spheres of human life. Its rapid integration into everyday reality intensifies research dedicated to the psychology of using neural networks. However, the development of empirical research in the Russian scientific field is limited by the lack of validated psychodiagnostic tools that ...
Added: July 5, 2026
Ershova N. V., Журнал институциональных исследований 2026 Т. 18 № 2 С. 82–97
This article, based on a survey data from 1,860 Russian manufacturing enterprises, analyzes the
scale of enterprise participation in science-industry collaboration (SIC), defines the characteristics of
enterprises that are more actively involved in SIC, and identifies regional institutional factors that
contribute to increased enterprise participation in SIC using correlation analysis. It is shown that
Russian manufacturing firms are very ...
Added: July 3, 2026
Podrugina A., Романова В. А., Пространственная экономика 2026 Т. 22 № 2 С. 56–85
Исследование посвящено анализу институциональных усилий развивающихся стран по дедолларизации и укреплению роли национальных валют. На основе систематизации теоретических подходов к интернационализации валют авторы разрабатывают новый аналитический инструмент – Индекс институционального развития финансового рынка в национальных валютах. Методология индекса охватывает четыре ключевых направления политики: использование валюты в международных расчетах, создание валютных своп-линий между центральными банками, развитие ...
Added: July 3, 2026
Anikeev K., AlterEconomics (ранее - Журнал экономической теории) 2026 Т. 23 № 2 С. 410–428
This study empirically tests the deposit channel hypothesis, which holds that increases in deposit markups cause liquidity outflows from the banking sector and a contraction in credit supply. The central question is whether deposit substitution effects, whereby depositors shift funds to other financial instruments during monetary tightening, are reflected in banks’ balance sheets and aggregate ...
Added: July 2, 2026
Kuzminov Y., Koshel A., Kruchinskaia E. et al., BRICS Law Journal 2026 Vol. 13 No. 2 P. 5–36
Today’s economy is undergoing a fundamental institutional shift in which digital ecosystems have emerged not only as a key driver of development but also as a critical condition for market access for billions of users. Despite the rapid global proliferation of these phenomena, the evolution of legal regulation—from e-commerce and data protection to antitrust oversight ...
Added: July 2, 2026
Kuzminov Y., Kruchinskaia E., Россия в глобальной политике 2026 Т. 24 № 4 С. 92–109
В статье анализируется структурный разрыв между увеличивающейся когнитивной нагрузкой и снижающейся отдачей от неё. Подход, при котором развитие научных и образовательных школ, ориентированных на тренировку суждения, может стать альтернативой количественному наращиванию вычислительных мощностей, которое служит основной стратегией Китая и США. Применительно к России традиция фундаментального образования и сильных исследовательских школ приобретает в новых условиях значение ...
Added: July 1, 2026
Saakyan T. V., Барабанова Ю. В., Финансовый журнал 2026 Т. 18 № 3 С. 110–121
In this article the authors aim to determine the place and role of methodological guidelines within the system regulating internal state financial control. The research holds both theoretical and applied significance, as a scholarly interpretation of this issue has not been previously undertaken and its examination will enable the full potential of the studied methodological ...
Added: July 1, 2026
Федорова В. С., Zavertiaeva M. A., Экономический журнал Высшей школы экономики 2026 Т. 30 № 2 С. 276–312
Crowdfunding is a relatively new method of project financing that involves raising funds from a large number of non-professional investors. Despite the rapid growth of this sector, only about 41.98% of crowdfunding campaigns are successful, which highlights the need to identify factors that increase the likelihood of successful fundraising. This study aims to address the ...
Added: July 1, 2026
Emelyanova O., Murashkin N., Asia Europe Journal 2025 Vol. 23 No. 4 P. 239–261
The goal of this article is to trace the evolution of Japan’s role in Southeast and South Asian political economy in the 2000s–2010s to understand how Japan’s previously established network power in Asian supply chains has changed amid much-discussed power shifts in the region. The increasing number of emerging and rising regional powers induces Japan ...
Added: June 30, 2026
Kuzina O. E., Моисеева Д. В., Абдураманов А. Я., Russian Journal of Economics 2026 Vol. 2 No. 12 P. 251–273
This paper assesses the relationship between financial literacy and over-indebtedness of Russian households using panel data from the Survey of Consumer Finances collected in Russia during 2018–2024. Russia is an interesting case: a relatively young consumer-finance market in which a lack of financial literacy may increase the likelihood of household over-indebtedness. To test this hypothesis, ...
Added: June 30, 2026
Bessonova E., Russian Journal of Economics 2026 Vol. 12 No. 2 P. 153–175
This paper analyzes total factor productivity (TFP) in Russia over 2009–2015 using firm-level data. Stochastic frontier analysis is employed to simultaneously estimate TFP growth and the distance to the production-possibility frontier for each firm in the sample. The results suggest significant positive rates of technological progress; however, the gap between technological frontier firms and laggards widened over ...
Added: June 30, 2026
Gazman V. D., США и Канада: экономика, политика, культура 2026 № 56 (6) С. 83–98
The article presents the results of the author's analysis of the reasons for the ultra-rapid growth of solar electricity production by large-scale generators (Utility Scale) during the 2020s. Data from 39 stations with a capacity exceeding 100 MW and holding more than 60% of the capacity of electricity storage systems in the United States have been ...
Added: June 29, 2026
Katkalo V., Shumkova N., Ужакина Ю. Б. et al., Издательский дом НИУ ВШЭ, 2026.
Настоящая книга является результатом четвертой волны исследования популяции российских корпоративных университетов, проводимого с 2022 г. высшей школой бизнеса НИУ ВШЭ. В это издание включены анализ даных о бизнес-моделях и портфелях программ этих корпоративных университетов по состоянию на 2025 г. и первый опыт сравнительного исследования отраслевых особенностей корпоративных университетов в ряде ключевых секторов экономики России. Также ...
Added: June 29, 2026
Lukyanova A., Demyanova A., Talakauskas D., Экономический журнал Высшей школы экономики 2026 Т. 30 № 2 С. 313–343
The paper examines methodological challenges of measuring informality following major revisions of international statistical standards. It analyses the Resolution concerning statistics on the informal economy adopted by the 21st International Conference of Labor Statisticians (2023) and offers practical recommendations for implementing this framework in the official statistics of the Russian Federation (Rosstat). Methodologically, the study ...
Added: June 28, 2026
Канихин Т. Н., Вестник Московского университета. Серия 6: Экономика 2026 Т. 61 № 1 С. 264–282
The article examines the attraction of foreign direct investment (FDI) to the renewable energy sector (RES) of the EU. The research aims to identify the factors and evaluate possible strategies for attracting FDI to the EU renewable energy sector. The author assumes that, with rising costs of Chinese equipment imports and shifts in US energy ...
Added: June 28, 2026
Gurkov I. B., Kossov V. V., Filinov N. et al., / NRU Higher School of Economics. Series MAN "Management". 2026. No. N/A.
This research note is devoted to assessing the socioeconomic impact of sanctions of sanctioned countries and uses the data on Russia in 2022-2024. We use for the analysis four fundamental socioeconomic parameters-the expected length of life of males at birth, the misery index (Okun's index), the level of Gross Domestic Product at purchasing parity prices, ...
Added: June 11, 2026
Meissner D., Salati Marcondes de Moraes G. H., Brandão Fischer B. et al., / NRU Higher School of Economics. Series WP BRP "Science, Technology and Innovation". 2025. No. WP BRP /STI/2025.
Innovation has long been at the center of debates in economics, management, and organizational studies. However, innovation is never free of uncertainty and risk. Every act of innovation implies a departure from established paths and a willingness to embrace the unknown. From the beginning it's never clear if there is an audience which appreciates the ...
Added: November 28, 2025
Cripps K., Ivanova E., Sridaran K. et al., / Series 0 "0". 2024.
Imagine a world where individuals are considering the impact on the long term of the decisions they are making. Where, as they analyze information, they wonder who are the stakeholders impacted – extending beyond the traditional ones to include Nature, the ecosystem as a stakeholder, and the next generations. Imagine young people reminding each other ...
Added: November 5, 2025
Sokolov B., / Series OSF "SocArXiv". 2025.
This paper reviews various estimands used in modern scientific and applied research to operationalize causal inquiries within the Rubin Causal Model framework. I first introduce the most widely utilized average treatment effects, such as ATE, ATT, and ATC. I then describe their popular extensions, including those targeting local and conditional treatment effects; causal interactions and mediation; effects ...
Added: May 6, 2025
Ovanesova Y., Moshiashvili M. M., Типсина Н. О., / Series "Working Papers". 2021.
The purpose of this article is to analyze and evaluate the cultural characteristics of the digital ecosystem product teams leaders and operational efficiency. Using binary choice models (the main conclusions were made on the basis of logit regressions), has been found a significant negative relationship between the probability of achieving business goals by a team ...
Added: February 17, 2025
Kapeliushnikov R., / Высшая школа экономики. Серия WP3 "Проблемы рынка труда". 2024. № WP3/2024/03.
The paper analyses the little-known essay of one of the classics of economic thought, J. A. Schumpeter (1883–1950), “The Sociology of Imperialisms,” where he appears not as an economic theorist, but as an economic sociologist. The problem of imperialism interested Schumpeter almost throughout his scientific career. His theory was polemically directed against various Marxist interpretations, ...
Added: December 18, 2024
Kapeliushnikov R., / Высшая школа экономики. Серия WP3 "Проблемы рынка труда". 2024. № WP3/2024/02.
The paper explores the key development in the Russian labor market of the 2020s – emergence of a massive overhang of vacant jobs, which has already reached a record level of 7 percent. The paper discusses theoretical aspects of the problem of labor “shortage”, examines probable triggers for the vacancy escalation, and analyzes its dynamics and ...
Added: December 18, 2024