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Working paper

Global energy trends and their implications for Russia: a pathway to the new energy wave

Kyzyngasheva E., Proskuryakova L. N.
Despite the success of many countries in increasing energy saving and energy efficiency, the global energy consumption is expected to continue its growth. The main reasons are economic development and population growth happening primarily in developing and emerging economies, especially in India and China. In such circumstances fossil fuels will remain the dominant energy source in the medium and even long run. The present research paper aims at analyzing the current global trends in the energy sector identified through literature review and expert tools, and their influence on Russia. Considering a broad range of factors, the paper determined the following main challenges for the Russian energy sector: tightening competition at international energy markets, the need for comprehensive modernization and stronger energy efficiency measures, the need for technological catch-up in a number of energy sector segments, the need to increase recovery factor at traditional oilfields, and the need to diversify energy mix by increasing the share of renewables. The paper also considers the main rationale for the last challenge that include strengthened security, reliability and sustainability of the Russian energy sector. Among the key preconditions for advancements in renewable energy are improvements in investment climate, modernisation of the central grid and changes in energy policy. The paper is based on the outcomes of the first stage of the Foresight project devoted to renewable energy technologies.