Russia’s Energy in 2030: future trends and technology priorities

Foresight. 2017. Vol. 19. No. 2. P. 139–151.

Proskuryakova L. N.

Purpose – The purpose of the study is to present and critically assess the outcomes of the Foresight study of the Russian energy sector, undertaken in 2014 in the course of a large-scale national Foresight exercise – ‘Science and Technology (S&T) Foresight 2030’.

Design/methodology/approach - Methods applied in the Foresight study include literature review, statistical, bibliometric and patent analysis, a variety of expert methods, SWOT-analysis, market analysis and policy analysis. In this paper the author performs an ex-post analysis of the study.

Findings - As a result of the study, threats, opportunities, prospective innovative markets for products and services were identified for Russia. Russia's innovative technologies and products were assessed with benchmarking against global leaders. The study’s methodology and outcomes are critically reviewed and recommendations for their refinement are made.

Originality/value - This paper offers a valuable insight in the future of energy research and technologies in Russia. It is a comprehensive study that covers all energy aspects from extraction of hydrocarbon to fuel cells and nuclear energy. An ex-post assessment of the study is made with implications for the suture research.

Keywords: форсайт, Россия, Russia, энергетические технологии, energy markets, energy technologies, Foresight, energy research, энергетические исследования, рынки в энергетике

Publication based on the results of: Advancing forecasting methods for evidence-based science, technology and innovation policy-making (2017)