Население России 2012: двадцатый ежегодный демографический доклад
The analysis of current trends of fertility, family planning and family policy in Russia is presented in chapter. The special attention is paid to changes in age profile of fertility, changes in structure of firtility by birth order, current and expected cohort total fertility, to ethnic and regional differentials in fertlity and in abortion prevalence, regional specifics of demographic and family policy. The analysis was carried out on the basis of detailed and, often, unpublished statistical information from Rosstat, Ministry of Public Health, Ministry of Labor, Social insurance fund, and also on representative for Russia sample surveys.
36 scenarios of the population projection for Russia until 2030 are presented and analyzed. Prognostic hypothesis of changes in fertility, mortality and migration are described, and the choice of number of projection scenario is explained. Possible changes in the size and age structure of the population are considered. Particular attention is paid to future dynamics of the main large age groups (children, population in working age and elderly) and to the possible changes of dependency ratio.