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Применение Google Trends для прогнозирования миграции из России: агрегация поисковых запросов и учет лаговой структуры
Прикладная эконометрика. 2024. № 73. С. 78–101.
Bronitsky G., Vakulenko E.
This paper proposes a method for predicting migration based on search query data statistics using Google Trends Index (GTI). We improved the existing methodology in two directions: firstly, we proposed an approach for selecting key search queries and aggregating them based on various statistical criteria; secondly, we showed the importance of including in the migration model the time lag structure of search queries, depending on the goals of the migration and the associated GTIs. Based on the monthly data of the German statistical office on the volume of migration from Russia to Germany from January 2011 to August 2022, we demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed approaches. The results show that distributed lag migration models with GTI are better predict migration than SARIMA models. Average lag estimates, i.e. the response time of migration statistics to search queries on the topics “embassy”, “work” and “study”, turned out to be 5.6, 6.5 and 8 months, respectively. It is shown that in order to predict migration from Russia to Germany, it is sufficient to take into account only search queries related to the topic "embassy".
Language:
Russian
Veselova L. S., Азия и Африка сегодня 2026 № 9 С. 38–48
The article examines the consumer practices of China’s middle class in the context of the transformation of Confucian values under the influence of market reforms, urbanization, the expansion of the domestic market, and the state ideology of contemporary China. The focus is on how traditional norms of family responsibility retain their normative significance while being ...
Added: October 12, 2026
Nikulina Y., / Высшая школа экономики. Серия EC "Economics". 2026. № 1.
This paper estimates the impact of the international sanctions of 2014 and 2022, as well as the food embargo, on the technical efficiency of agricultural enterprises. The assessment was carried out using panel data from agricultural enterprises specializing in dairy production in the Leningrad Region for the period 2010–2023, employing stochastic frontier analysis. It is ...
Added: October 11, 2026
Баранов А. И., Социологические исследования 2026 № 9 С. 69–80
This paper examines the implications of George Herbert Mead’s conception of political institutions in the context of the problem of social change. The problem lies in how the modern governmental institution combines stability and transformative capacity. Mead’s concept of time provides a general framework for understanding change, expressed in sociality as a phase of adjustment. ...
Added: October 11, 2026
Fudan Journal of the Humanities and Social Sciences 2026
This study reassesses whether economic globalization is compatible with carbon mitigation across nine Shanghai Cooperation Organization economies over 1997 to 2024. A sequenced panel design is applied: pre-estimation diagnostics establish cross-sectional dependence, slope heterogeneity, and mixed integration orders; fixed effects with Driscoll and Kraay standard errors provides the preferred conditional mean estimate; Hansen threshold regression, ...
Added: October 11, 2026
Торговые ограничения как инструмент международного давления (на примере импортных поставок в Россию)
Biryukova O. V., США и Канада: экономика, политика, культура 2026 Т. 10 С. 37–50
The article examines the theoretical and practical aspects of the application of trade restrictions as a tool of international pressure using the case of import supplies to Russia. Special attention is paid to legal conflicts within the World Trade Organization (WTO) related to the application of national security exceptions (Article XXI of the GATT), and ...
Added: October 10, 2026
Kishenin P., Атаманенко (Зинина) А. И., Демографическое обозрение 2026 Т. 13 № 3 С. 29–80
This study provides a comprehensive assessment of the effectiveness of key instruments of Russia’s pronatalist demographic policy—specifically, the federal maternity capital program and the RUB 450,000 subsidy for partial repayment of mortgage debt—over the period 2007–2023. The central research challenge is to disentangle short-term shifts in the timing of births from long-term structural changes in ...
Added: October 10, 2026
М.: НИЦ Инфра-М, 2026.
This textbook synthesizes modern concepts and approaches in the field of project management and is designed for use in project management courses. The material is based on the recommendations of the International Project Management Association (IPMA) and international standards ISO 21500 and ISO 21502.
It meets the requirements of the latest generation of federal state educational ...
Added: October 10, 2026
Trotsuk I., Социологическое обозрение 2026 Т. 25 № 3 С. 351–385
For the professional (in social sciences or humanities) reader David Graeber is a somewhat controversial figure. On the one hand, he is a remarkably successful foreign author in Russia: all his major books have been published in Russian, although his texts and reactions to them have been rather modestly represented in scientific journals. On the ...
Added: October 9, 2026
Aleskerov F. T., Вайншток А. П., Делахова А. М. et al., Информационные процессы 2026 Т. 26 № 3 С. 895–913
The development and effective management of territorial entities are priority issues for all states, particularly in the context of the digital transformation of public administration. Over the past decade, the integration of information technologies into municipal and regional planning has significantly altered approaches to strategic development, service delivery, and public engagement. This paper describes the ...
Added: October 9, 2026
Bessonova E., Popova S., Fedulova M., Emerging Markets Review 2026 Vol. 75 Article 101564
To mitigate the shocks caused by the pandemic-related restrictions, many governments implemented extensive support measures for companies facing sharp declines in revenues. In Russia, loan guarantee programmes allowed many firms to apply for loans during the pandemic. As a result, the number of small loans soared. Participation in the loan guarantee programmes helped firms in ...
Added: October 8, 2026
Kuzminov Y., Koshel A., Kruchinskaia E., Russian Journal of Economics 2026 No. 12(3) P. 311–334
The expansion of digital platforms and ecosystems is reshaping consumption and the structure of modern markets. In the Russian context, a representative survey conducted by the authors indicates frequent online purchasing driven primarily by time savings, broader assortment and price accessibility. Platforms thus generate consumer benefits, including non-monetary gains that are not fully captured by ...
Added: October 8, 2026
Rozhdestvenskaya E., Abramov R., Журнал социологии и социальной антропологии 2026 Т. 29 № 3 С. 244–274
The article presents an experimental study at the intersection of social anthropology and qualitative sociology. The empirical basis is a corpus of 18 short biographical sketches of collective farm peasant women from the village of Vysheley, Penza Region, created at the end of the Soviet period by school local historians and discovered by one of the authors during a ...
Added: October 7, 2026
Aleskerov F. T., Chaika E., Дерендяев А. Б. et al., Procedia Computer Science 2026 No. 287 P. 590–595
Under conditions of dynamic socio-economic changes, effective planning and decision-making are key factors in ensuring a high quality of life for the population in territories. This paper presents a decision support system for territorial administrations for the development and implementation of sustainable development strategies, using one of the regions of the Russian Federation – the ...
Added: October 7, 2026
Gajiyev A., Deviatko I. F., Conflict Resolution Quarterly 2026
This paper explores the factors influencing ordinary judgments of justice in warfare, drawing primarily on normative theories of just war. By examining the alignment between the philosophical principles of just war and ordinary normative judgments, we explore the extent to which lay moral evaluations of war are shaped by the principles articulated in normative just ...
Added: October 7, 2026
Nefedova A., Shmatko N., Antonova E., Социологические исследования 2026 № 9 С. 52–69
This article analyzes the transformation of professional competencies of researchers in the context of growing interdisciplinarity and the digitalization of science. The aim of the study is to identify the structural gap between the normative expectations of the scientific community and the actual outcomes of the research personnel training system in Russia. The theoretical framework ...
Added: October 6, 2026
Kuzminov Y., Kruchinskaia E., Koshel A. et al., М.: Издательский дом НИУ ВШЭ, 2026.
В научном докладе цифровые платформы впервые рассмотрены не как частный сегмент цифрового рынка, а как новый институциональный механизм организации экономики. В одной исследовательской рамке соединены экономика, право, социология, компьютерные науки, информационная безопасность, данные бизнеса и регуляторная практика — все то, что позволяет взглянуть на платформы как на институт со своими правилами игры. Особую ценность работе ...
Added: October 6, 2026
Nikulina Y., Jamali Jaghdani T., Götz L. et al., / Series "Working Papers". 2026.
The impact of state subsidies on Russia's post-Soviet dairy output remains controversial; this study provides an empirical analysis of that relationship. Using an unbalanced panel dataset of 123 dairy enterprises in the Leningrad Region spanning the period from 2010 to 2023, we employ stochastic frontier analysis to assess these relationships. The results indicate that subsidies ...
Added: September 30, 2026
Micah Y.B. Zing, Alisa R. Shishkina, Международная аналитика 2026 Vol. 2 No. 17 P. 126–138
The article focuses on the Western mainstream media (WMM) discourse on Russia-Africa relations and how Russo-Western information confrontation affects the diplomatic dialogue between Russia and African states. Historically, the Soviet Union fostered a friendly relationship with the continent, characterised by solidarity and mutual respect. The collapse of the Soviet Union, the WMM discourse on Russian-African ...
Added: September 25, 2026
Galyapina V. N., Lebedeva N., Социологические исследования 2026 Т. 6 С. 85–99
This article is devoted to individual values and social fears as predictors of the psychological health of Russians. The study included 2056 respondents and was conducted in 2022. The analysis using structural equation modeling while controlling for socio- demographic characteristics showed that the value of Self- Direction generally reduces social fears, while the value of ...
Added: September 25, 2026
Radaev V., Демографическое обозрение 2025 Т. 12 № 4 С. 4–44
В данной работе рассматриваются понятия взрослости и взросления как отдельного этапа в рамках жизненного цикла с опорой на демографическую и социологическую литературу. Обсуждается вопрос о том, как трансформируются в настоящее время модели взросления. А в эмпирической части делается попытка ответить на следующие вопросы: действительно ли молодые поколения (миллениалы и зумеры) откладывают события, связанные с взрослением, ...
Added: September 23, 2026
Kantor V., Философические письма. Русско-европейский диалог 2026 Т. 9 № 2 С. 11–37
This article paints a portrait of Maximilian Aleksandrovich Voloshin (1877–1932), one of the greatest creative figures of the Silver Age, equal in power to the geniuses of the Renaissance. A poet, art historian, and author of works on Surikov, Saryan, and Konchalovsky, poems about Russia, Archpriest Avvakum, Cain, and Our Lady of Vladimir, and articles ...
Added: September 23, 2026
Трещенков Е. Ю., Вестник РГГУ. Серия: Евразийские исследования. История. Политология. Международные отношения 2025 № 1 С. 110–134
Понятие «суверенитет» стало одним из ключевых в дискурсе России и Европейского союза. К нему они прибегают, обосновывая свои позиции в отношении друг друга в рамках конфликта по линии Россия-Запад. Особое место в этом конфликте занимают государства постсоветского пространства. В предлагаемом исследовании выявлены особенности присутствия государств региона в дискурсах суверенитета и в связанных с ними политических ...
Added: September 22, 2026
Zhukova O., Вопросы философии (Российская Федерация) 2026 № 8 С. 51–64
The article is a critical and philosophical analysis of a new book by the Russian philosopher and political scientist Aleksei A. Kara-Murza. His fundamental work “Selected Works on Russian Philosophy, Politics and Culture” (2024) contains articles in the field of philosophy of Russian history, completed by the author over the course of ten years. Essays, ...
Added: September 17, 2026
Kazun A., Социологические исследования 2026 № 8 С. 116–128
Аннотация. В международной и российской литературе остается дискуссионным вопрос о том, подрывает ли этническое разнообразие социальную сплоченность или, напротив, создает условия для межгруппового доверия. В статье анализируется статистическая связь между этнической структурой населенного пункта и доверием его жителей к людям другой национальности. Эмпирической основой работы выступает массовый онлайн- опрос взрослого населения России 2024 г., дополненный ...
Added: September 14, 2026