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Агрегированные трансфертные счета в региональном макроанализе
Abstract
Building upon the author’s prior publications in the journal Voprosy Statistiki (Issues No.4 and No.11 of 2019, Issue No.5 of 2020, and Issue No.3 of 2021), this new article deals with the problems of macroanalysis methodology, with particular reference to aggregated National Transfer Accounts (NTA) as applied to various regions of the Russian Federation with a view to expand the analytical capabilities of statistics.
The introductory section unveils the concept and general principle of constructing the system of aggregated transfer accounts for the readership, summarizing analytical capabilities of the accounts’ usage. It includes infographics for balancing joint estimates of Russia’s economic lifecycle performed by the HSE University for the economy as a whole and across various age cohorts. It also underpins the practicability of developing economic lifecycle account on a regional level.
The main section focuses on the capabilities and limitations of the Russian databases in view of constructing the first account of the NTA system, namely an aggregated economic lifecycle account, based upon the international NTA methodology adapted to the Russian statistics. The paper suggests a methodological approach – encompassing calculation assumptions and employed statistical methods – to constructing regional consumption and labor income profiles. Early results of the empirical calculations, performed across all of Russia’s regions for the year of 2018, demonstrate a wide scattering of resulting economic lifecycle estimates (as a percentage of GRP) ranging from a sizeable surplus to a deficit comparable with the gross regional product, and even surpassing it in a number of cases, and thereby confirming the sharp contrasts between the regions in terms of quality of life.
The concluding section of the article shows that the «financial appeal» of Russia’s regions, as measured by the resulting economic lifecycle account, resonates with the distribution of domestic labour migrants in terms of their work locations. Therefore, the author has verified the hypothesis that the criteria – which impact the resulting economic lifecycle of a certain region and the degree of interregional differences – lie within the geographical structure of production (i.e. key sectors of the region in question) and within the region-specific relationships with the central government.