This article addresses the framework for constructing and analysing National Transfer Accounts. NTA is a very useful analysis tool to study changes in the age structure of the population and income distribution processes between generations, and their economic impact on GDP. In some countries, NTA is actively used in long-term macroeconomic forecasting (on 40-years period and more). Main NTA indicators calculate with using of national accounts database (SNA). A vital element of the research is determining economic lifecycle results for all age-groups and identify its primary funding sources.
The article considers comprehensive methodological and practical approaches to the compiling the three aggregate transfer accounts - life cycle account, public reallocation account and private reallocation account - and using them as a basis for the analysis of socio-demographic processes in Russia. The macro analysis presented in the article is based on statistics of national accounts and other information sources for the years 2003-2017.
The conducted analysis resulted in compiling the system of aggregate transfer accounts for Russia for 2003-2017 and in identifying quantitative parameters of Russian economy life cycle balance and in examining qualitative changes in its funding sources. The authors own analysis demonstrated that while in 2003-2010 economic life circle balance was positive (except for the crisis year of 2009), in 2011-2016 it became negative. The State has been playing an increasing role in financing the economic life cycle deficit.
The existing international trade statistics is an indispensable tool of economic analysis, though its relevance may be questioned. In the world of global value chains, it is essential to understand that a good or service produced in one country and purchased in another one tend to embody value added of diverse national and sectoral origin. The article reviews the analytic capabilities offered by an alternative estimation of international trade in value added terms. Experimental data from OECD, WTO and World Input-Output Database project are used to quantify Russia’s role as an exporter of value added within the global value chains.
The article presents a unified analytical solution for combining high-frequency and annual (more accurate and reliable) macroeconomic data by the proportional Denton method with parametrical dependence on benchmarking initial condition in evident form. This solution demonstrates high computational efficiency for handling of quarterly, monthly or more frequent data in the time-series framework. Some provisional recommendations for its use in the statistical practice are made.
The article describes a method for verification of a statistical model, which is, firstly, the time series is represented by original data and, secondly, is linear in the estimated parameters. Experience in statistical calculations on real empirical data shows that the most well-known and conventionally used in the practice of econometric modeling of mathematical-statistical methods (least squares, maximum likelihood method, and similar methods) often do not ensure successful verification theoretically required forms of econometric models. The developed method is called an alternative method of linear regression (AMLR–method) provides an account of a priori restrictions on the absolute values and signs of the parameters identified by the model. The AMLR based on the concept of best linear index, known in the theory of statistics from the end of the 1950s. Mathematically AMLR it based on the method of principal components. The conditions of application AMLR method in econometric modeling and methods of transformation of the initial statistical information to ensure correct application of the developed evaluation procedures. Special problems of the proposed method is to determine the level of accuracy of approximation of the dependent variable of the model. In this regard, to assess the level of precision of the statistical model verifiable using the AMLR, developed an original method of decomposition of the time series on the regular and stochastic components. The properties of the proposed method of decomposition analyzed and given a numerical illustration of its use in econometric calculations.
The paper estimates an influence of government alcohol policies on the road accidents dynamics in Russian regions. The research was based on the regional data provided by Rosstat, for years 2001-2013. The sample included 962 observation units from 74 regions of the Russian Federation. Alcohol deterrence measures under review included temporal bans on alcohol sales and price instruments (increase in alcohol prices due to excise taxes for spirits and floor price for vodka). Among other controlled for variables were population density, unemployment, number of automobiles per person in a region. The authors also differentiated between the regions with developed illegal alcohol markets and those where illegal alcohol trade was not widespread. To do so, the authors used the number of audits by authorized bodies that revealed law infringements in alcohol production or trade. Econometric analysis revealed a favorable influence of temporal bans on the number of road accidents. In addition it was proved that in the regions with strict control over illicit trafficking of alcohol the number of traffic accidents decreased as a result of reducing the permitted alcohol trading hours. The number of accidents in a region is negatively correlated with unemployment level and population density. At the same time, the presented data does not show definite correlation between price mechanisms and the number of road accidents in Russian regions.
Current study focuses on the analysis of the impact of the deposit insurance system on the functioning of national banking system. Literature review reflect the difference in the opinions of analytics about the character of this impact. Summarizing points of view one may conclude that in unstable periods deposit insurance system may strengthen the banking system and prevent customers run. In opposite in the periods of growth of the economy it may lead to the additional moral hazard.
Banking systems of BRICS are in the focus of current research. Russian Federation is the member of this association and, as some analytics thinks, BRICS has good opportunity to grow. Meanwhile one might mention that BRICS is artificial association. Modern experience shows that it members have chosen too different paths of development and have gained too different results. However, common to them is the existence of intensive transition processes that lead to the instability in the economy and the existence of social problems, poverty, corruption and the stratification of society.
First part of the article focuses on the comparison of deposit insurance system in different countries of BRICS. Analysis shows serious differences in deposit insurance systems of these countries. In particular, in South Africa the system is not enshrined in law and is implicit. In some countries, it is in private ownership and/or not has state guaranties.
Second part of article focuses on the econometric analysis of the impact of deposit insurance system on the level of risks, which banks may take. The existence and quality of open data about the state of banking systems let us to conduct full analysis only for Russian Federation and Brazil. For other countries, only short analysis was conducted. Results of panel models estimation let one make conclusion about the impact of the increase of the maximum amount of insurance coverage on the level of risks which bank may take. The impact depends on the characteristics of economic situation, crisis if exists, the level of control of the Central Bank of commercial banks and the percentage of deposits in bank which may be covered by deposit insurance system.
The paper focuses on the primary sources of information on Russia’s foreign trade. The objective of the study is to describe the main sources of data on foreign trade in goods and services, and compare them according to such criteria as time horizon, speciﬁcation by types of goods and services, the breakdown of data by country and region, and the data format.
The methodology tools rely on the possibility of applying databases for various user tasks (such as operative analysis, international comparisons, and studying the structure of foreign trade by types of goods and services and by partner countries).
The author shows that none of the databases meets all the criteria. To obtain a high-quality result, it is necessary to combine information from different sources. The paper demonstrates the problems of the incompleteness of the monthly data in the UN Comtrade database and uncertainty with the classiﬁer at the junction of 2016-2017 in the Federal Customs Service TSVT database. The author reveals the data gaps in the UN Comtrade database for Russia for some commodity groups. The article presents a comparison of Bank of Russia, OECD, WTO, and UN publications.
The conclusions are given in the form of recommendations on the use of the databases depending on the users’ requirements according to the speed of data publication, availability of data for international comparisons, and the need to reﬂect the structure of Russia’s foreign trade by type of goods and services.
The analysis reveals individual structural components of foreign trade turnover and preferences in the use of information bases. For trade in goods, the author recommends a simultaneous usage of the Federal Customs Service TSVT database and the UN Comtrade database; for trade in services the use of the Bank of Russia, OECD or WTO databases (depending on the user’s task).