Мигранты на рынке труда Москвы

Вопросы экономики. 2025. № 1. С. 44–70.

Varshavskaya E., Denisenko M. B.

The paper presents a comprehensive analysis of labor migration in Moscow, including all types of spatial mobility that are significant for the capital’s labor market. The research focuses on both international and internal migrants, including commuting labor migrants. The information base includes microdata from the Labor Force Survey by Rosstat, statistics of the Ministry of the Interior of the Russian Federation, and the results of the survey of international migrants working in Moscow. Assessment of the scale and dynamics of labor migration is made, a comparative characteristic of the socio-demographic and economic peculiarities of Muscovites and various groups of migrants is given, professional and sectoral niches of migrant labor are identified, the impact of migration on the labor market of Moscow is assessed. Temporary labor migrants represent a significant part of the Moscow labor market: they account for at least a quarter of all workers in the capital. It is shown that labor migrants compensate for the decreasing groups of Muscovites — young people and the population with a low level of education. For the first time, calculations of selectivity indices are performed on Russian data. The analysis shows that migrants are concentrated in a limited industrial and professional segment, which indicates the formation of migrant employment niches. It is proved that migrants fill the gap in the demand for low-skilled labor and its supply from the highly educated Moscow labor force. As a result, the shortage of labor is decreasing, especially in the sectors that are not attractive to Muscovites. From the perspective of places of employment (industry and profession), migrants and Muscovites are not competitors but complement each other.

Keywords: рынок труда, трудовая миграция, внутренняя миграция, Москва, международная миграция, Moscow, international migration, маятниковая миграция, internal migration, labor market, long-distance commuting, labor migration, commuting labor migration, вахтовая миграция

Publication based on the results of: Demographic situation analysis and projections for the Russian Federation. Development of recommendation on population and migration policy (2025)