Урбанизация и революции: количественный анализ

Социологические исследования. 2022. № 10. С. 85–95.

Ustyuzhanin V., Sumernikov E., Grinin L. E., Korotayev A.

Developing countries are now at a stage of accelerated modernization and its crucial part – the urbanization transition. In classical papers on this topic, authors mentioned that revolutions are an integral part of modernization. In this article authors presents a study of how urbanization affects the risks of different revolutionary events – armed and unarmed. By exploiting cross-national data from 1950 to 2019 and analyzing 459 revolutionary events from NAVCO database, authors conclude that there is a strong and negative correlation between urbanization and the risks of armed uprisings. Meanwhile, the risks of unarmed revolutions behave curvilinearly: as urbanization increases, the risks of the unarmed uprisings increase, but begin to fall when the country is in the final stage of the urbanization transition. Thus, we are dealing with a pronounced curvilinear (inverted U-shaped) relationship between urbanization and the risks of unarmed revolutionary destabilization. 

Keywords: modernization, Революция, Revolution, Urbanization, Cross-national studies, Урбанизация, Модернизация, Кросс-национальные исследования

Publication based on the results of: New revolution wave at the Afrasian instability zone (2022)