Прогнозирование банкротства компаний нефтегазового сектора с использованием нейросетей
Regarding today’s unstable economic situation the issue of correctly evaluation of existing financial statements of the company and forecasting it`s development potential is very important both for the company and for the rest of the market players. Within the framework of this research the evaluation of the bankruptcy probability of the company in the oil and gas sector has been considered. For now oil&gas sector remains the most stable and conservative due to the specific end products produced and business organization model. In the meantime there are some relatively small (comparing to the transcontinental companies) oil&gas companies, which business is not under governmental insurance or under the shelter of the host company. For such companies, sustaining financial stability is a real challenge. That is why economic shocks often conduce their bankruptcy.
The determinants of the bankruptcy probability in this research were the following financial data: profitability, liquidity, financial leverage, turnover ratio. Theoretical analysis has proven that financial leverage correlates with the other model data (marketability, liquidity and the turnover ratio). This issue has been proved through data output. The highest was correlation between financial leverage and liquidity (34%). Changing this variable to its own deviation from the industry mean (taking absolute value) the problem of multicollinearity has been solved. However, according to the model results, this variable only slightly affects the bankruptcy probability. Over all profitability has the most magnitude, which corresponds the other researcher’s conclusion: stable company can be characterized through high liquidity, high profitability and low financial leverage deviation from its standard. So that the empirical analysis has shown, that test hypothesizes can be executed on the principal variables (profitability, liquidity and financial leverage). Such variable as rate of income tax indicates the social-economic development of the country, in which the company operates, than a factor of bankruptcy.