«Идеальный шторм» личного потребления
Вопросы экономики. 2021. № 10. С. 27-50.
Grigoryev L. M., Ёлкина З. С., Медникова П. А., Serova D., Starodubtseva M., Филиппова Е. С.
, , , Вопросы экономики 2020 № 5 С. 5-24
All world upward trends and cycles have a lot in common while crises significantly differ. In the case of this research the recession was sparked not by the shock of financial sector but by the restrictions imposed on consumption that previously was not inclined to fluctuate that much. Oil price shock has increased negative influence ...
Added: May 13, 2020
, , et al., Вестник международных организаций: образование, наука, новая экономика 2022 Т. 17 № 4 С. 7-37
Sociocultural factors have become a one of the priority areas in research within the framework of theories of long-term development. This article discusses the parameters of groups of countries (values of survival-self-expression and traditional-secular-rational values) according to the Inglehart- Welzel cultural map, along with other sociocultural and socioeconomic indicators. The significant cumulative advantage (gross domestic ...
Added: October 28, 2022
, , et al., Журнал Новой экономической ассоциации 2021 Т. 4 № 52 С. 239-246
The article puts forward the thesis that the COVID–19 recession has already passed, which makes it possible to make some other conclusions. It is emphasized that the recession was triggered mainly by temporary restrictions on social contacts and mobility that were “external” to the economy. For Russia, it was aggravated by discords among the OPEC+ ...
Added: December 28, 2021
, , BRICS Journal of Economics 2020 Vol. 1 No. 2 P. 4-24
The global COVID-19 pandemic and an unexpected recession of a dangerous magnitude have provided strong reasons to look at the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) from three points of view: the SDGs as a victim of the recession 2020; the SDGs as an opportunity for better coordination on the way out of recession; and the SDGs ...
Added: August 15, 2020
, , , Вопросы экономики 2023 № 10 С. 75-97
In recent decades, predicting turning points of economic cycles (their peaks and troughs) using leading indicators has established itself as a fairly simple, clear and at the same time reliable method. But the world experience has shown that any system of leading indicators requires revision and clarification from time to time. The recent non-economic shocks ...
Added: October 25, 2023
, , Вопросы экономики 2022 № 5 С. 26-50
Modern economic life is characterized by an exponential increase of available information and a shortening time for decision-making. Hence, the necessity for more timely composite macroeconomic indicators is increasing (objectively), but the supply of such instruments lags behind the demand. This paper develops the daily Economic Stress Index (ESI) for the Russian Federation. It differs from all previously proposed Russian ...
Added: May 26, 2022
, , , Экономический журнал Высшей школы экономики 2015 Т. 19 № 4 С. 534-553
At first, we discuss whether the concept of economic cycles is at all applicable to the realities of the Russian economy. As for several subperiods during the last 35 years, it has been not only market but planned and transformed also, this issue is arguable. But in our opinion, all mid-term factors of total economic ...
Added: November 6, 2015
, , Вопросы государственного и муниципального управления 2020 № 3 С. 71-95
The situation of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in the Russian Federation during the COVID-19 pandemic and the resulting restrictive measures introduced by the state are analyzed in the context of the long-term dynamics of the sector and changes in public policy towards SMEs over the last two decades. Based on the analysis of official statistics and business demographics in 2005–2020, ...
Added: January 26, 2021
, , et al., Вопросы государственного и муниципального управления 2020 № 4 С. 7-30
During the COVID-19 pandemic, most governments around the world have introduced social distancing measures to reduce social interaction between people. Those measures could be introduced on national, regional and local levels depending on particular country. They range from advice about not leaving home (self-isolation) to strict quarantine measures. The choice of particular measures relies on ...
Added: November 26, 2020
, / National Research University Higher School of Economics. Series WP BRP "Basic research program". 2015. No. 20.
Russian recession of 2014/2015 began with ruble run and rise of inflation. It is just the opposite of the western-type deflationary slump combined with money hoarding. Does it mean that Russians need different micro-model to describe saving and consumption behavior? This study show that work-horse log-linearized rational SDF with CRRA utility still provides good explanation ...
Added: November 20, 2015
, , , Форсайт 2021 Т. 15 № 4 С. 61-77
Technological startups help to adapt economies to the global risks and allow one to track future trends. This paper identifies the main trends and birth factors of new high-tech companies in the Russian regions during 2013-2020. In 2020, fewer than 10,000 startups were created annually, this number has been steadily declining (by 40% since 2015), ...
Added: January 31, 2022
Российская экономика после присоединения Крыма: новые реалии и перспективы развития. [Текст] : докл. к XVI Апр. меж- дунар. науч. конф. по проблемам развития экономики и общества
, , et al., М. : Издательский дом НИУ ВШЭ, 2015
Мы попытались оценить возможные последствия кризиса для российской экономики в том случае, если надежды на возврат цен на нефть до 100 долл./барр. не оправдаются, а действие взаимных санкций между Россией и западными странами останется. При сохранении цен на нефть на уровне около 50 долл./барр. и тенденции к международной изоляции России объем ВВП в реальном выражении ...
Added: April 15, 2015
Russian cyclical indicators and their usefulness in real time: An experience of the 2008-09 recession
, Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis 2014 No. 1 P. 103-128
This report investigates the predictability of cyclical turning points in Russia. For years, anyone interested in Russia had access to a full set of common tools for business cycle analysis, such as several composite leading indicators, a purchasing managers’ index, enterprise and consumer sentiment indexes, and so on. However, the 2008-09 world financial crisis spread ...
Added: July 18, 2014
, , , / Высшая школа экономики. Series EC "Economics". 2016. No. 122.
This paper establishes a reference chronology for the Russian economic cycle from the early 1980s to mid-2015. To detect peaks and troughs, we tested nine monthly indices as reference series, three methods of seasonal adjustments (X-12-ARIMA, TRAMO/SEATS, and CAMPLET), and four methods for dating cyclical turning points (local min/max, Bry-Boschan, Harding-Pagan, and Markov-Switching model). As ...
Added: January 22, 2016
, , Population and Economics 2022 Vol. 6 No. 4 P. 1-20
The paper identifies major factors associated with the pandemic spread in the Russian regions, using econometric models and nonlinear "Random Forest" models to assess their significance. The study is based on data of the Russian regions for March-December 2020, a balanced panel sample included 780 observations. Prevalence of the pandemic was estimated based on the ...
Added: November 19, 2022
Sofia : Perun-Sprint Ltd., 2012
Added: February 19, 2013
, , et al., Вопросы экономики 2021 Т. 7 С. 123-141
The access to credits for companies with high productivity is an important factor for the economic recovery after the shock. In this paper, we analyze changes in banks’ lending to Russian companies’ in 2020. Our analysis shows that in 2020 the volume of new ruble credits increased relative to the level of the previous year. At the same time, ...
Added: October 12, 2021
, , / Высшая школа экономики. Series EC "Economics". 2016. No. 135.
There is evidence in the economic literature that professional forecasters are unsuccessful in predicting recessions, but the reasons for these failures are still not clear. Meanwhile, this phenomenon has been little studied on the basis of quarterly estimates for various target horizons. We analysed quarterly consensus forecasts of real GDP growth rates and probabilities of ...
Added: May 19, 2016
Leading indicators of turning points of the business cycle: panel data analysis for OECD countries and Russia
, / Высшая школа экономики. Series EC "Economics". 2014.
The main objective of this paper is to develop leading indicators of business cycle turning points for OECD countries and Russia, in order to reveal common factors of their macroeconomic processes over a long period of time. To predict cycle turning points, leading indicator models with a discrete dependent variable reflecting a business cycle phase ...
Added: February 20, 2014
, Население и экономика 2020 Т. 4 № 2 С. 18-25
Global drama of pandemic has caused the deep reduction of consumption of wealthy strata, unemployment and isolation. Huge number of people around the Globe is facing the step back to basic needs by Maslow pyramid: physiological needs and security. Adaptation of people to the new situation goes difficult, while somewhat easier for employed in intellectual ...
Added: April 25, 2020
, / Высшая школа экономики. Series EC "Economics". 2014. No. 77.
There is evidence in the economic literature that near cyclical peaks an optimistic bias exists in private expert forecasts of real GDP growth rates. Other evidence concerns differences in the accuracy of GDP forecasts made during expansions and those made during contractions. It has also been hypothesized that a wishful bias may hamper the ability ...
Added: November 28, 2014
, Научный журнал НИУ ИТМО. Серия: Экономика и экологический менеджмент 2015 Т. 21 № 2 С. 77-84
This article discusses the range of issues concerning the laws governing the formation of growth factors in the value of the interaction of industrial firms with a bank in a recession. Purpose - to test the installation of the conceptual model of investment and lending activities of industrial companies for evaluation of management effectiveness. In ...
Added: April 17, 2015
, Проблемы теории и практики управления 2016 № 6 С. 109-114
Methodological issues related to designing a system of indicators for tracing Russian business cycle are discussed. Several definitions of economic cycles in their application to the Russian economy are considered. Possible approaches to dating turning points, constructing composite cyclical indicators and their using for monitoring and forecasting cyclical trajectory are analyzed. ...
Added: June 29, 2016
, , Evolutio. Общественные науки 2016 № 7 С. 34-46
The urgency and purpose. Low level of financial capability is an actual problem of modern society. This problem directly effects on economic and social growth. Russian and foreign companies confirm that Russians have a low level of financial capability. Based on the Standard&Poors research findings was identified that only 38% of Russians have a high ...
Added: March 13, 2017