Весна переоценки: как меняется видение мировой экономики международными организациями

Современная мировая экономика. 2024. Т. 2. № 1. С. 23–44.

Grigoryev L. M.

In 2024, a series of reports from international and private research institutions offered a cautious and rational analysis of the global economic situation. The complicated economic growth of 2011-2019 was followed by the turmoil of 2020-2023. In the midst of geopolitical conflicts, the global economy has entered a phase of uneven recovery. The current situation should be considered as a shift in the socio-economic development regime. In these circumstances almost all major actors—from the head of the IMF to the Pope—see some certain risks and threats in world processes. Positive GDP dynamic has been restored, but at a level lower than at the beginning of the 21st century. China supports the momentum of global economic growth.

The current global landscape can be pictured as follows: emerging and low-income economies are lagging behind the developed economies in terms of economic growth, with no signs of convergence; the EU economy is essentially stagnant, with risks of further deterioration in the economic outlook; and only the US has hardly managed to return to its conventional economic growth rates. Sluggish global growth is accompanied by a significant divergence in the economic dynamics among the major players. With low revenue growth, the resources available to governments have shrunk, especially in the face of an increasingly complex set of challenges. While the cyclical recovery appears weak, its drivers over the next two to three years (investments in renewable energy, electric vehicles and artificial intelligence) may provide some additional impetus, albeit not very strong. Generally, the world has finally taken a look at its current position, but the conclusions and solutions remain unclear.

Keywords: прогнозы, экономическое развитие, деловой цикл, драйверы роста