Базовые таблицы «затраты-выпуск» за 2021 год: некоторые аспекты применения в исследованиях

Проблемы прогнозирования. 2026. № 1. С. 45–55.

Kalinin A. M.

Rosstat's publication of basic input–output tables for 2021, given the five-year periodicity of such materials, represents a significant event for Russian economic science. The article provides an overview of some of the features and properties of the published tables and the results of their use for the analysis of technological changes and import dependence. It has been shown that when comparing the specified materials for 2016 and 2021, the conclusions previously drawn on the basis of the annually published tables of resources and uses remain generally valid. At the same time, symmetrical input–output tables allow us to obtain a more reliable picture of the changes that took place. Overall, the data in the tables for 2021 indicate no significant structural or technological shifts in the Russian economy, although there is some evidence of simplification of the relationships between activities. From the point of view of assessing import dependence, detailed basic input–output tables allow us not only to assess the level of import use by industry, but also to identify intermediate consumption positions where imported goods are dominant. Such elements can be found in intermediate consumption across many types of products. The results obtained can be used to formulate sound policies to strengthen technological sovereignty.

Keywords: импортозамещение, межотраслевой баланс, технологические изменения, technological change, input-output tables, import substitution, import dependence, импортозависимость, таблицы затраты-выпуск, inter-industry balance