Эхо "арабской весны" в странах Африки южнее Сахары: опыт количественного анализа

Азия и Африка сегодня. 2019. Т. 738. № 1. С. 17–24.

Korotayev A., Meshcherina K., Каткова В. Э.

It is shown that the Arab Spring acted as a trigger for a global wave of socio-political destabilization, which significantly exceeded the scale of the Arab Spring itself and affected absolutely all the World System zones. However, this global destabilization wave manifested itself in different World System zones in different ways and not entirely simultaneously. 

The growth of the total number of anti-government demonstrations and riots in Sub-Saharan Africa in 2011-2015 was not particularly strong in comparison with most other macrozones, but, by the measures of this macrozone itself, this growth was very noticeable (by several times) and Africa made its own historical records in 2014. If the West, Asia and Latin America made the main contribution in 2014-2015 to historically record levels of the global number of demonstrations, riots and general strikes and the share of Sub-Saharan Africa here 

was relatively low, then to the reaching of historically record levels in 2014 by the global number of guerrilla warfare actions Sub-Saharan Africa made a very significant contribution. 

 

Keywords: количественный анализ, «арабская весна», индексы дестабилизации CNTS, дестабилизационные процессы, макрорегионы, Африка южнее Сахары

Publication based on the results of: New World Order Architecture in the Middle and Near East (2018)