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Regular version of the site

Article

World demographic situation from the perspective of global demographic balance

Business Informatics. 2014. No. 4(30). P. 72-77.
Bogdanova T., Yakovets T.

In 1971 in his Nobel lecture Simon Kuznets noted that the population growth had been ceasing to be the main force

of the economic growth over the last one or two decades. Accordingly, the authors have examined the contemporary

demographic situation in the world based on information given in United Nations (UN) population prospects. This paper

describes the global demographic balance method that includes 5 age cohorts of the population of 20 countries and regions

of the world for the last period of 1950-2010 and UN Population Prospect to 2050. This method has been applied to

analyze quantitative parameters of the demographic situation in developed, least developed and in developing countries.

Developed countries, which had passed the demographic transition, will face a depopulation pattern in XXI. The age

structure of depopulation trends in these countries is given. In least developed countries the population growth has been

persisting but not at so high pace as it was in the second half of the 20

th

century. BRICS countries stand out from developing

countries. To assess qualitative characteristics of countries of the world the Human Development Index (HDI) has been

used. This paper outlines characteristics of this indicator given by United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).

HDI values for BRICS countries are specified, and a conclusion has been drawn that qualitative growth is needed for

economies of these countries. Outputs of world population simulation and projections by G.P. Gorshkov, B.M. Dolgopolov

and A.A. Akayev, adjusted for the biosphere ultimate capacity, are presented. A conclusion has been formulated that

projections by S.P. Kapitsa and UN experts that disregard the biosphere ultimate capacity are more realistic.