Межвременной выбор и товары длительного пользования
The theory of intertemporal substitution is the most popular theory of the dynamics of household consumption used in different studies. However, there is no consensus among researchers on what model describes consumer preferences more accurately and which parameters can be considered to be correct. In light of this problem, the first section of the article focuses on analysis of two groups of factors affecting the estimation of the parameters of the model – behavioral and methodological factors. Special attention is paid to the study of a particular group of consumers, which has not been considered by other authors while estimating the parameters of these models. In this paper it is assumed that households with no financial assets except for loans to purchase durable goods also optimize their consumption in accordance with the real expected loan-rate. Based on the characteristics of this group of consumers, we specify and estimate the model of intertemporal choice with durable goods using household interview dataset from U. S. Consumer Expenditure Survey. Considering specific features of durables, debt-financed vehicles (cars) are used as a proxy for durable goods. Model specification, data processing, and evaluation method are discussed in the third, fourth and fifth sections. The sixth section discusses the results of the evaluation. Using Generalized Method of Moments, a statistically significant estimate of the elasticity of intertemporal substitution was obtained, which allows to accept the proposed hypothesis. Thus, it is concluded that this group of optimizes its consumption in accordance with real expected auto-loan rate. Furthermore, a high estimate of elasticity of intratemporal substitution between durables nondurables was obtained, which allows for their partial separability and almost perfect substitution. This sections also refers to factors that can affect the unbiasedness and the consistency of estimates. The conclusion summarizes the findings and outlines the directions of future research.