Влияние болезней системы кровообращения на демографическое развитие России
Regional variation of all features of mortality is quite significant. Being noted for many decades The North-Ost gradient of increased mortality rate continues its trend. In a time despite essential regional variation of mortality the difference in the orientation of its dynamic is not significant at all. An important condition for development of measures to ensure a decrease of mortality rate is information on social and demographic factors.
Length of life in Russia has been decreasing already for 40 years. According to the Programme of Action adopted by the Cairo International Conference on Population in 1994, all countries should commit themselves to raise life expectancy for both sexes above 70 by 2005. It is already clear, that by the year 2005 Russia will not even come near to this goal.At the best it will succeed in reaching the life expectancy recommended for the countries with the highest mortality - 65 years. Child mortality in Russia is declining but at a very low pace. But the case of adult mortality is even worse. High mortality rates result from an insufficient control over many, mainly exogenous causes of death. The general structure of the causes of death remains archaic in many respects. The authors are of the opinion, that demographic losses from high mortality are comparable to military losses. How can Russia get over the demographic crisis? The authors offer their answer to this complicated question.
The monograph is devoted to the problems arising in the analysis of demographic processes, the calculation of net rates and assessment of reserves in the major life insurance contract. The results of studies involving various related parties of the analyzed issues. For example, given a detailed comparative analysis of pre- and disadvantages of organization of the insurance market in Russia and abroad. With used - vaniem various techniques built a ranking of countries in terms of development of the market under study.
The basis of actuarial calculations in the basic life insurance contracts are demo graphic processes: in particular, information about the mortality rate. The foundation for the construction of a net rates and valuation reserves in the life insurance contract is the data of mortality tables, which are based, in turn, is an indicator of how Vero die before reaching next age interval. In this regard, the authors present the theoretical aspects of the construction of the net rates and valuation reserves in life insurance contracts. The paper discusses methods of constructing mortality tables , raised the problem of statistical analysis of demographic processes in actuarial calculations, an overview of the basic formulas used to derive the net rates and valuation reserves in life insurance contracts.
The authors of the classification of the Russian Federation in terms of economic and demographic character. Some representatives of the obtained clusters The results of the study of the dynamics of demographic processes. It analyzes the main trends in life expectancy at age and sex and the regional context.
Of course, the authors have paid special attention to the analysis of the impact of demographic, financial factors on change of the tariff policy of life insurance contracts, as well as the impact on the rate and size of the allowance conditions of the contract. The research data for the city of Moscow as a financial and information center of Russia, which significantly affects the development of the insurance market as a whole (not only in the life insurance sector).
The results of these studies may be interested in a wide range of professionals in the field of economics, actuarial calculations in life insurance analysts.
The article deals with longevity risk, which is faced by non-state pension funds, and possible methods of its management. Longevity risk arises from uncertainty in future mortality trends and is related with the guaranteed lifelong pension payments. The emphasis is put on the impact of this risk on solvency of non-state pension funds. Results of the estimation show, that the effect is quite significant and longevity risk has to be controlled. Two possible methods of risk management for longevity risk are discussed: special reserves and life expectancy forecasting.
After a long decline, life expectancy in Russia substantially increased in 2004-2010; this is the longest period of health improvement that has been observed in the country since 1965. This study is the first analysis of this positive trend.
We seek to determine the causes and age groups that account for the additional years of life gained in 2004-10 and the remaining gap between Russia and Western countries, to assess to what extent these recent trends represent a new development relative to previous mortality fluctuations, and to identify possible explanations for the improvement.
We present an analysis of trends in life expectancy, and in age- and cause-specific mortality in Russia and selected countries in Eastern and Western Europe. We use decomposition techniques to examine the life expectancy rise in 2004-2010 and the Russia-UK life expectancy gap in 2010.
Like the previous mortality fluctuations that have occurred in Russia since the mid-1980s, the increase in life expectancy was driven by deaths at ages 15 to 60 from alcohol-related causes. Uniquely in the recent period, there were also improvements at older ages, especially in cerebrovascular disease mortality among women. In addition, there were reductions in deaths from avoidable causes, such as from tuberculosis and diabetes. The life expectancy gap between Russia and Western countries remains large, and is mostly attributable to deaths from cardiovascular disease, alcohol-related conditions, and violence.
The decrease in alcohol-related mortality may be attributable to measures taken in 2006 to control the production and sale of ethanol. The lower number of cerebrovascular-related deaths may reflect advancements in blood pressure control. The reduction in the number of deaths from tuberculosis and diabetes may be associated with a general improvement in health care. Although the decline in mortality since 2004 has been substantial, the question of whether it can be sustained remains open.
Smoking is a problem, bringing signifi cant social and economic costs to Russiansociety. However, ratifi cation of the World health organization Framework conventionon tobacco control makes it possible to improve Russian legislation accordingto the international standards. So, I describe some measures that should be taken bythe Russian authorities in the nearest future, and I examine their effi ciency. By studyingthe international evidence I analyze the impact of the smoke-free areas, advertisementand sponsorship bans, tax increases, etc. on the prevalence of smoking, cigaretteconsumption and some other indicators. I also investigate the obstacles confrontingthe Russian authorities when they introduce new policy measures and the public attitudetowards these measures. I conclude that there is a number of easy-to-implementanti-smoking activities that need no fi nancial resources but only a political will.
We address the external effects on public sector efficiency measures acquired using Data Envelopment Analysis. We use the health care system in Russian regions in 2011 to evaluate modern approaches to accounting for external effects. We propose a promising method of correcting DEA efficiency measures. Despite the multiple advantages DEA offers, the usage of this approach carries with it a number of methodological difficulties. Accounting for multiple factors of efficiency calls for more complex methods, among which the most promising are DMU clustering and calculating local production possibility frontiers. Using regression models for estimate correction requires further study due to possible systematic errors during estimation. A mixture of data correction and DMU clustering together with multi-stage DEA seems most promising at the moment. Analyzing several stages of transforming society’s resources into social welfare will allow for picking out the weak points in a state agency’s work.