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Article

Глобальный демографический переход и фазы дивергенции – конвергенции центра и периферии мир-системы

The 19th century saw an explosive growth of the gap between the “First” and the “Third” World as regards per capita incomes and levels of life that has become to be known as the “Great Divergence”. In the 20th century the Great Divergence continued up to the early 1970s, and then – in the late of the 1980s one could observe the beginning of the Great Divergence when the growth rates of the majority of the Third World countries started to exceed systematically the growth rates in the majority of the countries of the First World. We demonstrate that the dynamics of the gap between the First and Third World correlate in an unusually tight way with the dynamics of the world population growth. We also demonstrate that this correlation is not coincidental but reflects a very tight correlation between the phases of the global demographic transition and the phases of the Great Divergence / Great Convergence. The process of the Great Divergence that transforms rather smoothly into the process of the Great Convergence and the global demographic transition (that is the process of global modernization) can be regarded as different sides of a single process – a phase transition in the World System development – the global modernization process.