• A
  • A
  • A
  • АБВ
  • АБВ
  • АБВ
  • A
  • A
  • A
  • A
  • A
Обычная версия сайта
  • RU
  • EN
  • HSE University
  • Publications
  • Books
  • Economic Cycles, Crises, and the Global Periphery
  • RU
  • EN
Расширенный поиск
Высшая школа экономики
Национальный исследовательский университет
Priority areas
  • business informatics
  • economics
  • engineering science
  • humanitarian
  • IT and mathematics
  • law
  • management
  • mathematics
  • sociology
  • state and public administration
by year
  • 2028
  • 2027
  • 2026
  • 2025
  • 2024
  • 2023
  • 2022
  • 2021
  • 2020
  • 2019
  • 2018
  • 2017
  • 2016
  • 2015
  • 2014
  • 2013
  • 2012
  • 2011
  • 2010
  • 2009
  • 2008
  • 2007
  • 2006
  • 2005
  • 2004
  • 2003
  • 2002
  • 2001
  • 2000
  • 1999
  • 1998
  • 1997
  • 1996
  • 1995
  • 1994
  • 1993
  • 1992
  • 1991
  • 1990
  • 1989
  • 1988
  • 1987
  • 1986
  • 1985
  • 1984
  • 1983
  • 1982
  • 1981
  • 1980
  • 1979
  • 1978
  • 1977
  • 1976
  • 1975
  • 1974
  • 1973
  • 1972
  • 1971
  • 1970
  • 1969
  • 1968
  • 1967
  • 1966
  • 1965
  • 1964
  • 1963
  • 1958
  • More
Subject
News
September 15, 2026
Immunity to Chaos: How Personal Resources Help Us Cope with the Challenges of a Turbulent World
International conflicts, crises and digital overload—the modern world puts our minds to the test every day. Traditional psychology often focuses on the consequences: anxiety, depression, and psychosomatic disorders. But what if we looked at the problem differently—through the lens of the resources that prevent us from breaking down? Psychological immunity is precisely this set of resources. Alena Zolotareva and her group, Psychological Immunity as a Resource for Positive Functioning, are developing an integrative model of this phenomenon, adapting diagnostic tools and preparing for large-scale empirical research. Why do psychologists need to collaborate with medical professionals, and how could their research transform preventive care in clinics and corporations?
September 11, 2026
How to Assess Students Knowledge in the Age of AI
A researcher at HSE University has proposed a flowchart to help lecturers decide how to assess students who use artificial intelligence. It shows where the use of AI should be restricted and where it can be incorporated into the learning process. The article has been published in IT Professional.
September 9, 2026
‘Balkan Hospitality Opens Doors: Studying Dialects on the Verge of Extinction
You cannot study spoken dialects from books. Instead, you need to go to a village, seek out its elders, and earn the trust of local residents before you can record hours of spontaneous stories. This is how Natalia Muravleva, Associate Professor at the Faculty of Humanities, conducts her research. Her internship in Serbia continued her long-standing study of dialects spoken by Macedonian settlers. In this interview, she discusses how diaspora cultural centres help researchers reach informants, why native speakers need to be interviewed only in their own language (otherwise, as she puts it, they may 'break'), and how a single field season helped her finalise her monograph. She also shares warm memories of autumn in Belgrade and of colleagues with whom grammar can be discussed in three languages at once.

 

Have you spotted a typo?
Highlight it, click Ctrl+Enter and send us a message. Thank you for your help!

Publications
  • Books
  • Articles
  • Chapters of books
  • Working papers
  • Report a publication
  • Research at HSE

?

Economic Cycles, Crises, and the Global Periphery

Springer, 2016.
Korotayev A., Grinin L. E., Tausch A.

This thought-provoking monograph analyzes long- medium- and short-term global cycles of prosperity, recession, and depression, plotting them against centuries of important world events. Major research on economic and political cycles is integrated to clarify evolving relationships between the global center and its periphery as well as current worldwide economic upheavals and potential future developments. Central to this survey are successive waves of industrial and, later, technological and cybernetic progress, leading to the current era of globalization and the changes of the roles of both Western powers and former minors players, however that will lead to the formation of the world order without a hegemon. Additionally, the authors predict what they term the Great Convergence, the lessening of inequities between the global core and the rest of the world, including the wealth gap between First and Third World nations.

                                                                            

Among the topics in this ambitious volume:

 

·         Why politics is often omitted from economic analysis.

·         Why economic cycles are crucial to understanding the modern geopolitical landscape.   

·         How the aging of the developed world will affect world technological and economic future.<

·         The evolving technological forecast for Global North and South.                

·         Where the U.S. is likely to stand on the future world stage.

 

 

Economic Cycles, Crises, and the Global Periphery will inspire discussion and debate among sociologists, global economists, demographers,  global historians, and futurologists. This expert knowledge is necessary for further research, proactive response, and preparedness for a new age of sociopolitical change.          

Research target: Philosophy, Ethics, and Religious Studies Economics and Management Mathematics Sociology (including Demography and Anthropology Political Science, International Relations, and Public Administration History and Archeology
Priority areas: economics sociology humanitarian IT and mathematics mathematics
Language: English
Full text
Text on another site
Keywords: business cyclesconvergenceKondratieff wavesabsolute convergenceWorld-SystemCrisesJuglar cyclesthe World SystemWorld-system peripheryGreat Divergenceworld-system coreeconomic crisesglobal convergence
Publication based on the results of:
The Arab Spring as the Trigger of a Global Phase Transition (2016)
Economic Cycles, Crises, and the Global Periphery
Similar publications
Формула победы или рецепт неудачи: что определяет результативность гражданского участия при защите исторических объектов в российских городах?
Шамшура К. А., Журнал социологии и социальной антропологии 2026 Т. 29 № 2 С. 170–204
The article examines the conditions that influence the outcomes of civic participation in the protection of historical sites in Russian cities. It is based on the political opportunity structure theory, which suggests that structural conditions that shape the political opportunity structure have the greatest impact on the outcome of collective action. Drawing on the literature ...
Added: September 17, 2026
Пролетаризация труда в условиях развития искусственного интеллекта
Моисеев Г. В., Гуманитарные исследования в Восточной Сибири и на Дальнем Востоке 2026 № 2 (76) С. 58–68
The article presents a philosophical analysis of the transformation of labor in the context of the spread of AI technologies. Criticizing the notion of AI as an autonomous and neutral technology leading to the replacement of human labor, the author proposes to analyze the social consequences of AI development within the framework of automation processes ...
Added: September 17, 2026
Universality of robust chaotic dynamics in a family of one-dimensional Lorenz maps
Kazakov A., Koryakin V., Safonov K. et al., Journal of Differential Equations 2026 Vol. 480 Article 114626
We study a family of one-dimensional maps that models the dynamics of a system of differential equations with a Lorenz attractor near a bifurcation curve where the system has a pair of homoclinic loops with zero separatrix value. Of particular interest is the region of the parameter plane where the map has a robust chaotic ...
Added: September 16, 2026
Путешествие Курта и Марго Любински по Сибири (1928 г.)
Abilova R., Вестник Томского государственного университета. История 2023 № 85 С. 141–148
The article is devoted to the photographs of Lubinskis, taken in the Soviet Union in the summer of 1928. The author reconstructs the context of the creation and existence of photographs. The research is based on digital photography collections of Spaarnestad Photo Foundation and Ullstein Bildarchiv, Kurt Lubinski`s travelogue book “This is our world” (1938), ...
Added: September 16, 2026
Искусственный интеллект в городском хозяйстве. Актуальные области применения тезисы докладов II научно-практической конференции (Россия, Москва, 20 марта 2026 г.)
М.: Московский Политех, 2026.
Основной целью конференции является освещение проблем, связанных с внедрением технологий искусственного интеллекта в управление городским хозяйством города Москвы. Участниками были представлены инновационные решения для оптимизации использования ресурсов и городской инфраструктуры. Особое внимание было уделено решению задач прогнозирования и аналитического моделирования для повышения эффективности работы городских систем. Тезисы докладов содержат разностороннее исследование теоретических и практических вопросов развития ...
Added: September 16, 2026
Regional Disparities in Social Support for Housing and Communal Services Payments in Russia
Abdullaev A., Sivaev S., Regional Research of Russia 2026 Vol. 16 No. 3 P. 518–530
The article examines the specific features of implementing regional programs of targeted social support for housing and communal services payments in Russia. The aim of the study is to identify differences between the federal subjects in key parameters of the program, targeting and coverage of households with housing subsidies, as well as in the results of ...
Added: September 16, 2026
Continuously pleated torus or strange nonchaotic attractors seen as continuously fractalized quasiperiodic attractors
Letellier C., Stankevich N., Houri S. et al., Chaos 2026 Vol. 36 No. 9 Article 093128
Toroidal chaos designates a chaotic solution that is structured in the neighborhood of a torus. For being chaotic, such a torus needs to be discontinuously fractalized to present a Cantor set, ensuring the great sensitivity to initial conditions required for chaos. A fractal is related to self-similarity and a non-integer dimension. In fact, although clearly ...
Added: September 16, 2026
Political polarisation and democratic backsliding: Moldova’s Paradox
Gipsman M., Ivanov D., Rosenberg D., Third World Quarterly 2026 P. 1–23
Moldova has been prone to socio-political polarisation due to historical, ethno-linguistic, and geopolitical factors. However, portraying modern Moldova as being torn between the West and the East oversimplifies the case. In Moldova, socio-political polarisation is indeed on the rise, but for the most part it is moderate rather than extreme, and the major fault lines ...
Added: September 15, 2026
Gender Attitudes at the In-dividual and Societal Level as Factors of Subjective Well-Being: Comparative Analysis
Догузов А. В., Almakaeva A., Nastina E. et al., Monitoring Obshchestvennogo Mneniya: Ekonomichekie i Sotsial'nye Peremeny 2026 No. 4 P. 3–24
This paper examines the relation-ship between gender attitudes and subjec-tive well-being, focusing on life satisfaction as its core indicator. It covers both individual and country-level gender attitudes and tests whether a mismatch between them affects in-dividual well-being. The analysis draws on the 7th wave of the World Values Survey, covering 55 countries. Gender attitudes are captured ...
Added: September 15, 2026
Vague stimulating ideas, images and metaphors in scientific thinking: researchers' work with horizons of unclear knowledge
Poddiakov A., / Series Social Science Research Network "Social Science Research Network". 2026. No. 7437658.
Clarity of knowledge and reasoning is necessary in many cases. Yet vagueness in scientific thinking related to surprise, curiosity, "ability to engage with not-knowing" (de Freitas) and abductive reasoning is also a crucially important source of scientific creativity which supplements combinatorial logic when dealing with the already known. Starting from studies by C. S. Peirce ...
Added: September 15, 2026
Революционная активность в цифровую эпоху: особенности возникновения и развития в контексте политических режимов
А.И. Жданов, А.В. Коротаев, Социологические исследования 2026 № 8 С. 3–14
The article is devoted to an analysis of the influence of digital technologies and the Internet on the emergence and development of revolutionary activity in the 21st century. The authors consider the Internet to be a new significant factor in political destabilization, noting its role in coordinating protests, overcoming state censorship, and shaping new behavioral ...
Added: September 15, 2026
ОКВЭД3: методологические основы и практические решения
Gokhberg L., Abdrakhmanova G., Kutsenko E. et al., Вопросы статистики 2026 Т. 33 № 4 С. 5–20
This article examines the methodological and practical issues associated with the transition to the new edition of the All-Russian Classifier of Economic Activities (OKVED) – OKVED3. The relevance of the study stems from the need to reflect contemporary structural changes in the economy, related to the transformation of the existing economic activities and emergence of ...
Added: September 15, 2026
Структура потребления табачных и никотинсодержащих изделий среди взрослых в Российской Федерации: репрезентативные исследования 2019–2024 гг.
Салагай О. О., Сахарова Г. М., Антонов Н. С. et al., Здоровье населения и среда обитания 2026 Т. 34 № 6 С. 7-17
Introduction: Tobacco and nicotine use is a risk factor for noncommunicable diseases, malignant neoplasms, and a severe course of infectious diseases. This factor, however, is manageable and can be modified through prevention programs allowing for trends and specifics of the use of tobacco and nicotine products. Objective: To analyze patterns of tobacco and nicotine product use among the ...
Added: September 15, 2026
Структура потребления табачных и никотинсодержащих изделий участниками СВО
Салагай О. О., Сахарова Г. М., Антонов Н. С. et al., Медицинский вестник Юга России 2026 Т. 17 № 2 С. 109–119
Objective: analysis of the structure and characteristics of the consumption of various types of tobacco and nicotine-containing products by Veterans. Materials and methods: the analysis was carried out based on the results of a survey of Veterans using a developed questionnaire. The survey was conducted at the offices of the Defenders of the Fatherland Foundation. The proportions ...
Added: September 15, 2026
Репродуктивные намерения и когортная рождаемость россиянок с разным уровнем образования по данным из разных источников
Churilova E., Chertenkov K., Andreev E. M., Мониторинг общественного мнения: Экономические и социальные перемены 2026 № 4 С. 185–206
The study compares the average expected number of children and completed cohort fertility both in general and by educational level across generations of Russian women born in 1950–1979. The data on completed cohort fertility comes from the Russian Fertility Database of the HSE University and the All-Russian Population Census 2020; the data on the expected ...
Added: September 14, 2026
On phase-lock area parquet in a special slow-fast limit of model of Josephson junction.
Glutsyuk A., / Series arXiv "math". 2026.
B.Josephson (Nobel Prize, 1973) predicted a tunnelling effect for a system of two superconductors separated by a narrow dielectric (such a system is called Josephson junction): existence of a supercurrent through it and equations governing it. The overdamped Josephson junction is modeled by the family of differential equations on the 2-torus, dθdτ=1ω(cosθ+B+Acosτ), which is known as ...
Added: September 8, 2026
Donald Trump and Radical Reconfiguration of the World-System in the Context of the World Order Transformation
Leonid Grinin, Anton Grinin, Korotayev A., Journal of World-Systems Research 2026 Vol. 32 No. 2 P. 391–420
The article analyzes the direction, mechanisms, and causes through which President Trump’s actions contribute to the destruction of the foundations of U.S. influence in the world and to the transformation of the world order. For almost two decades we have been observing such an important phenomenon as the reconfiguration of the WorldSystem, which means that ...
Added: September 7, 2026
Infinitely many graph manifolds with unique geometrical piece that admit arbitrarily many Anosov flows
Pochinka O., Shmukler V., / Series math.RT "arXiv:1808.06395 [math.RT]". 2026.
Anosov flows have a long and rich history, firstly motivated by the study of geodesic flows in negative curvature surface by Anosov and Sinai. Not every closed manifold admits an Anosov flow for well-known reasons: the fundamental group of a 3-manifold M admitting an Anosov flow must have exponential growth, and M must be universally covered by R3. Nevertheless, there ...
Added: August 31, 2026
Vanishing Vanguard: Decline of Leadership in Revolutionary Mass Mobilization since the 19th Century
Ustyuzhanin V., Zinkina J. V., Korotayev A., / Series "SocArXiv". 2026.
“Leaderlessness” is widely held to be a defining feature of contemporary mass mobilization, yet the claim rests on a handful of recent cases. We offer the first systematic cross-national analysis of this phenomenon from 1791 to 2019. We show that the absence of leadership is real but older and more modest than claimed: the share ...
Added: August 29, 2026
On calibration of remote sensing retrievals of ecosystem respiration (Reco) with tower measurements over,Russian forests and wetlands
Shabanov N., Kuricheva O., Kurbatova J. et al., / Series Working Papers SSRN "Department of Economics Ca’ Foscari University of Venice". 2026.
The carbon balance of an ecosystem is the difference between Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) and Ecosystem Respiration (Reco) as expressed by Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE). While remote sensing retrievals of GPP have reached maturity, Reco estimation remains underexplored and ultimately cast bias on NEE. Here we present an end-to-end multi-scale analysis of the mechanism of ...
Added: August 21, 2026
Three Algorithms for Merging Hierarchical Navigable Small World Graphs
Ponomarenko A., / Series Computer Science "arxiv.org". 2025.
This paper addresses the challenge of merging hierarchical navigable small world (HNSW) graphs, a critical operation for distributed systems, incremental indexing, and database compaction. We propose three algorithms for this task: Naive Graph Merge (NGM), Intra Graph Traversal Merge (IGTM), and Cross Graph Traversal Merge (CGTM). These algorithms differ in their approach to vertex selection ...
Added: July 30, 2026
Institutions, Normative Expectations, and Harassment Bribery: Evidence from a Three-country Experiment
Zhuravleva T., Afanasev K., Engelmann J. et al., / Series "SSRN Working Paper Series". 2026.
Extortionary ("harassment") bribery can persist even when widely condemned, consistent with a coordination problem sustained by beliefs about what others do and what others consider acceptable. We study whether a minimal institutional featurethe presence of a third-party monitor empowered to punish-shifts (i) normative expectations about extortion and compliance and (ii) empirical expectations about their prevalence. ...
Added: July 22, 2026
New bound on S1× S2-setting Bell locality of a nonseparable Werner state
Loubenets E. R., / Series arxiv.org "quant-ph". 2026. No. 2607.18050.
In many quantum applications it is important to know whether or not a Bell nonlocal two-qudit state exhibits its nonlocality under correlation scenarios with some given numbers S1,S2≥1 of generalized quantum measurements at two sites. In the present article, we find analytically a new general locality condition sufficient for a  nonseparable Werner state with a ...
Added: July 21, 2026
On functional equations for Chow polylogarithms
Bolbachan V., / Series math "arxiv.org". 2024.
Chow polylogarithms are some special functions arising in explicit description of the Beilinson regulator map. The most interesting functional equation for this function reflects its vanishing on the boundary in the Bloch's cycle complex. We show that this functional equation formally follows from more simple ones, namely skew-symmetry, functoriality and multiplicativity. To prove this, we study ...
Added: July 16, 2026
  • About
  • About
  • Key Figures & Facts
  • Sustainability at HSE University
  • Faculties & Departments
  • International Partnerships
  • Faculty & Staff
  • HSE Buildings
  • HSE University for Persons with Disabilities
  • Public Enquiries
  • Studies
  • Admissions
  • Programme Catalogue
  • Undergraduate
  • Graduate
  • Exchange Programmes
  • Summer University
  • Summer Schools
  • Semester in Moscow
  • Business Internship
  • Research
  • International Laboratories
  • Research Centres
  • Research Projects
  • Monitoring Studies
  • Conferences & Seminars
  • Academic Jobs
  • Yasin (April) International Academic Conference on Economic and Social Development
  • Media & Resources
  • Publications by staff
  • HSE Journals
  • Publishing House
  • iq.hse.ru: commentary by HSE experts
  • Library
  • Economic & Social Data Archive
  • Video
  • HSE Repository of Socio-Economic Information
  • HSE1993–2026
  • Contacts
  • Copyright
  • Privacy Policy
  • Site Map
Edit