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О некоторых современных тенденциях мирового экономического развития
Вестник Института экономики Российской академии наук. 2016. № 4. С. 20–39.
The paper shows that Kondratiev wave dynamics in the growth rate of global GDP in
recent decades of the Great Convergence is generated by developing countries, while in the
preceding period of the Great Divergence Kondratiev wave dynamics was generated above
all the most economically developed countries of the “first world.” At the same time, in
stark contrast to the developed countries, the developing countries at the height of the fifth
Kondratieff wave could not be easy to achieve very high rates of growth of GDP per capita
values reached their peak in the previous wave, but even surpass them significantly. It is
shown that an important role in the escalation of the Great Divergence in Greater convergence
played a speaker share of investment in GDP. Back in the 1960s, between developed
and developing countries, there is a very large gap in the share of investment in GDP in
favor of the developed countries, which certainly contributed to the continuation of the
process of the Great Convergence. By the mid-1970s, the share equaled, in 1990 the share
of developing countries has become much more than the share of developed countries, and
in the 2000s, the gap between developing and developed countries (in favor of developing
countries) has reached enormous proportions.