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Regular version of the site

Article

Assessing interactions of technologies and markets for technology road mapping

Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 2015. Vol. 101. P. 320-327.

We present a new approach to technology road mapping (TR) which allows one to assess interactions of technologies and markets. Unlike the traditional methodology of TR that mostly relies on qualitative techniques, the proposed approach combines qualitative and quantitative methods. This bottom-up economic model allows the aggregation of estimates on different levels from the product group to industry used to quantify the market development. The KLEMS (capital, labor, energy, materials and services) production factors and multifactor productivity embedded in the model play the role of parameters measuring interactions between market outputs and technology innovation according to market-pull and technology-push effects. The qualitative methods include: STEEPV trend identification, 2 × 2 scenario analysis, and expert procedures. This allows for decreasing the number of parameters, inputs and calculations in the economic model. At the same time, balance between qualitative and quantitative techniques provide more realistic estimates for technological and market parameters. The assessment of interactions between technologies and markets is illustrated using the case of civil aircraft manufacturing in Russia. Technology impact is measured in terms of output growth of the industry.