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Article

S&P 500: новый пузырь?

The article provides an analysis of cumulative US equity value as of February, 2014 by means of Equity Q and CAPE multipliers. These coefficients allowed to identify NASDAQ bubble in the late nineties. Also these multipliers historically helped to predict the subsequent profitability of the equity market, allowing to speak about macroinefficiency. The author reveals identity of Equity Q and CAPE coefficients. The US market as of February, 2014 may be considered as a bubble only if to rely on time invariance of multipliers and to expect their reversion to average value. However, such conclusion can be false if there was the structural shift associated with profit share change of corporations in Gross Domestic Product and in relation of investors to risk.