The article provides an analysis of cumulative US equity value as of February, 2014 by means of Equity Q and CAPE multipliers. These coefficients allowed to identify NASDAQ bubble in the late nineties. Also these multipliers historically helped to predict the subsequent profitability of the equity market, allowing to speak about macroinefficiency. The author reveals identity of Equity Q and CAPE coefficients. The US market as of February, 2014 may be considered as a bubble only if to rely on time invariance of multipliers and to expect their reversion to average value. However, such conclusion can be false if there was the structural shift associated with profit share change of corporations in Gross Domestic Product and in relation of investors to risk.
The paper focuses on analysis of investments in development of performance management systems that provide information support of strategic management. Such systems do not allow estimating the results of their development in financial terms, so traditional methods of investment appraisal are inapplicable. In this case, comparison of investments with non-financial values seems reasonable. Taking into consideration stochastic factors, the simulation approach is recommended. The purpose of the paper is to develop a discrete-event simulation model for analyzing of results of performance management systems development programs implementation. The appropriate tasks include description of key elements of the model, as well as recommendations regarding evaluation of development programs and selection of the preferable one. The model relies on timed stochastic Petri nets, where time lags are described in terms of holding durations assigned to output arcs. All the time lags may be either deterministic or stochastic. The simulation model presented in the paper allows analysis of investments in performance management systems development. The model contains description of projects, relations between them, as well as impact of the projects on maturity of the performance management system and appropriate financial metrics. The simulation model makes possible calculating generic measures of effectiveness, resource usage and time characteristics of performance management systems development programs. If there are several alternative development programs, these measures may be used for comparison of the programs and selection of one of them for implementation.
The paper examines an econometrical model of the business credit portfolio volume (BCPV) for largest Russian banks during 2010-2012. It is shown that (1) BCPV is defined only by attracted and invested funds volumes and is not dependent on external factors, contradictory to the common Western papers’ results; (2) the participation of the Russian state in the bank equity is surprisingly not-affecting its credit policy; (3) the revealed dependence of credit decisions from the previous data displays the effect of "sticky information". The causes and the effects of the results received are discussed.
The paper is focused on the analysis of high-tech investment projects developed under high risk conditions and anticipation of high profits. The evidence of various kinds of uncertainty and qualitative characteristics of alternatives does not allow application of traditional methods of investment analysis. That is why it is recommended to use decision support systems (DSS) based on different methods of decision-making. The purpose of the paper is to develop a new approach based on the use of decision support systems, allowing to arrange comparison and assessment of alternative projects taking into consideration multiple criteria (including qualitative), to co-ordinate projects estimates received from different experts (taking into account their competence levels), as well as to use possible scenarios of the external environment evolution. The research tasks involve developing decision-making models using particular DSSs, application of different methods for justification of the object of venture investments choice, as well as determination of appropriate solutions and comparing the results. In the paper, such decision-making methods as Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Analytic Network Process (ANP) are used. Application of some methods developed by the author, which combine different principles of co-ordination of the alternatives estimates, is also proposed. As a tool for solution of the task the most popular DSSs, including Expert Decision Support System (EDSS) developed under the author’s supervising, are applied. The results presented in the paper underline the effectiveness of the proposed approach for justifying the choice of an object of venture investments. Using of different DSSs allows application of various mathematical methods to improve the quality of the decision-making analytical justification. As a result of the research the task of an object for venture capital investments choice, using modern methods and tools is formulated and solved. The proposed approach can be applied in investment and venture funds.
Importance Having been adopted in 2015, personal insolvency regulations significantly influenced the supply structure in the lending market, and dramatically changed banks' approaches to dealing with difficult customers, especially in consumer lending. Objectives The research analyzes strengths and weaknesses credit institutions face as a result of the enforcement of personal insolvency regulations, nature of changes in banks and debtors' interaction models, and transforms principles of lending policies in line with existing economic realities. Methods I applied methods of logic, economic analysis to study banking risks associated with insolvency of individual borrowers. Results I fundamentally evaluated principles of personal bankruptcy laws so to determine possible banking risks at each stage of bankruptcy proceedings. Having analyzed cause-and-effect perspectives, I identified procedural and economic difference of debt restructuring processes and sale of debtors' property that took place as part of bankruptcy proceedings. Conclusions and Relevance The adoption of bankruptcy regulations will make banks be more tolerable to troubled borrowers seeking for debt restructuring. Banks seldom exercise their entitlement for suing bankrupt debtors, since it reduces interest, other income and the amount to be repaid. The analysis reveals the personal insolvency procedure in terms of vulnerable aspects and allows to understand advantages banks may enjoy if they deal with borrowers without initiating bankruptcy litigations.
Importance Given the relationship between the effective result of the credit and corporate banking customers the ability to create value, the problematic issue of studying tools improve the validity of credit decisions based on the analysis of value growth has become very relevant.
Objective The aim is to study the means justify lending decisions from the point of view of the companies' ability in them to create added value. Thus, the object of research is the result of interaction of bank credit to consumers of the corporate market, and the subject - the tools of creating value for the client by the data of enterprises of fuel industry.
Results The result of this study was to study the applicability of the proposed tools improve the validity of credit decisions based on analysis of cost growth. These tools allow you to control the market-value-added businesses and help solve the problem of efficiency of interaction of the loan with the bank company through maximizing value and ensuring the repayment of debt in the future.