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Regional Savings in the Context of Aggregate Transfer Accounts and Territorial Patterns of the Age Structure
Abstract
The article examines the applied use of aggregate estimates of national transfer accounts (NTA) as an additional aspect of regional macroeconomic analysis. The NTA essence is the construction of age-specific, or intergenerational, distribution of resources in annual terms. However, constructing aggregate estimates (across all ages for an economy or region) is valuable for macroeconomic analytics on its own. The NTA construction is a relatively new tool, but it is already demanded worldwide for interdisciplinary data analysis at the intersection of economics, demography, and statistics. This study analyzes and explains retrospective changes in how regions make savings looking at these changes from an additional prospective. Its starting point was an assumption about a connection between structural shifts in regional profiles of life cycle balance sheet results (NTA key parameters) and changes in the proportions of regions’ disposable income distribution.
The article describes the calculation methodology and the first results obtained in a 10-year retrospective study covering 2011-2020. Experimental calculations for Russia are based on the international UN National Transfer Accounts Manual adapted to the Russian statistical data. Three qualitatively different groups of regions have been identified. The first group is marked by a steady surplus in the analyzed indicators, the second one – by a steady deficit, while the third one – by a mixed picture. Experimental calculations confirm that regarding the third group of regions, trends in aggregate estimates of regional savings and in life cycle balance results have changed from a deficit to a surplus. These changes indirectly indicate positive shifts in the quality of life of the population, meaning that they are indirectly indicative of positive shifts in social sustainability of the Russian regions.