Российская рождаемость в XXI веке и перспективы ее повышения

Демографическое обозрение. 2025. Т. 12. № 2. С. 87–107.

Andreev E. M., Churilova E., Rodina O., Chertenkov K.

The decline of the total fertility rate observed in Russia since the second half of the 2010s has caused great concern among policy makers and public opinion, and resulted in proposals for measures to increase fertility through its rejuvenation. This paper, based on official fertility statistics with the use of the 2020 Census data and microdata on births and deaths, examines the contribution of changes in fertility by age and order of births to the decline in the TFR in 2015-2023 and in changes in cohort fertility among Russian women born in 1950-1984. Using the decomposition method, we have shown that the observed decline in the TFR after 2015 is a result of declining firstborn births among young women under 30. Analysis of changes in the cohort total fertility shows that, by contrast, cohorts born in the late 1970s and early 1980s show an increase in fertility, with an expansion in the proportion of childless women “statistically” compensated by growth in the proportion of women who have given birth to two or three children. Our analysis of the 2020 Census data shows that a significant negative relationship between the age at first birth and the total number of children was observed in women cohorts born in the late 1950s and early 1960s, while no such relationship was found for younger Russian cohorts. At the same time, the most favorable age for childbirth from the point of view of minimal infant mortality and stillbirth is the period from 20 to 29 years old. Considering the rather stable reproductive intentions of Russian women, studies of the efficiency of various policy measures to stimulate fertility, and the medical and socio-economic consequences of early births, we believe that postponing childbearing to an age after education is rational from both medical and economic points of view. Creating conditions for achieving the desired number of births and giving birth to the firstborn at the most favorable ages may be more effective in terms of demographic results than attempts to rejuvenate fertility.

Keywords: социальная политика, рождаемость, Россия, Russia, social policy, fertility, cohort fertility, period fertility, decomposition of fertility changes, когортная рождаемость, рождаемость условных поколений, компонентная декомпозиция изменений рождаемости

Publication based on the results of: Recommendations on family policy and active ageing policy measures taking into account the dynamics of quality of life indicators (2025)