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Article

Экономическое голосование на выборах 2011-12 годов

Щербак А. Н., Сенников Е. В., Лисовский Т. А.

This paper focuses on the 2011-2012 national elections in Russia based on the economic voting theory. We test significance of different economic factors on decline of the United Russia party and incumbent president Vladimir Putin electoral support. The economic growth in recent years has led to the ambiguous results in Russia. On the one hand, an average income increased almost two-fold and that resulted in expansion of the Russian middle class. On the other hand, such issues as income inequality and migration became much more salient in Russian society. Using the OLS methodology we test the significance of three factors on electoral outcome: regional spread of Internet, regional share of pensioners and regional crime rates, controlled on income and share of urban population. We find that spread of Internet is insignificant, but share of pensioners and crime rates negatively affect electoral support of the United Russia and Putin.