Afrasian Instability Zone and Its Historical Background

Social Evolution & History. 2016. Vol. 15. No. 2. P. 120–140.

Коротаев А. В., Исаев Л. М., Шишкина А. Р., Rudenko M. A., Иванов Е. А.

The evolution of the Afroeurasian world-system which in the ‘long 16th century’ was transformed into the global World System comprised both economic and political components, some of which are discussed in the present article. Earlier research has identified four major zones of instability which can be designated as the Central Asian (including Afghanistan and Pakistan), the Middle East, North Africa, and the Sahel region. We suggest considering these four zones as a single Afrasian macrozone of instability. We show that this zone correlates rather closely with the zone of traditional prevalence of the parallel cousin marriage, as well as with the zone of very low female labor force participation rate, and the territory of the Umayyad Califate. The article demonstrates that this correlation is not coincidental and also discusses the factors and mechanisms that have produced it. 

Ключевые слова: Middle East, global instability, Conflicts, Arab spring

ПУБЛИКАЦИЯ ПОДГОТОВЛЕНА ПО РЕЗУЛЬТАТАМ ПРОЕКТА: Арабская весна как триггер глобального фазового перехода (2016)