Trial by Fire: A Natural Disaster's Impact on Support for the Authorities in Rural Russia

World Politics. 2014. Vol. 66. No. 4. P. 641–668.

Лазарев Е. А., Соболев А. С., Соболева И. В., Соколов Б. О.

This article aims to explore the microfoundations of political support under a nondemocratic regime by investigating the impact of a natural disaster on attitudes toward the government. The research exploits the enormous wildfires that occurred in rural Russia during the summer of 2010 as a natural experiment. The authors test the effects of fires with a survey of almost eight hundred respondents in seventy randomly selected villages. The study finds that in the burned villages there is higher support for the government at all levels. Most counterintuitively, the rise of support for authorities cannot be fully explained by the generous governmental aid. The authors interpret the results by the demonstration effect of the government's performance.

Ключевые слова: квазиэкспериментальный дизайн, легитимность, российская деревня, experimental design, fires, rural Russia, political attitudes, political legitimacy