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Инфляция и правила денежной политики: анализ множественности равновесий в новокейнсианской модели с накоплением капитала

Sosunov K. A., Громова Е. А.
We analyze the effects of positive trend inflation in the framework of the standard New-Keynesian model with Calvo price setting and capital accumulation. We build on the work of Carlstrom and Fuerts (2005) and Ascari and Ropele (2007) who separately considered effects of capital accumulation and trend inflation in the similar context. We show that the simultaneous presence of positive inflation and capital accumulation greatly affects determinacy property of equilibrium in this setup. Namely, we show that in order to maintain stability in addition to actively react to inflation monetary authorities should react to output fluctuations but not to a great extend. Overreaction to output may lead to indeterminacy. We also show that for a large set of plausible parameters standard Taylor rule leads to indeterminacy. We argue that in this case indeterminacy of equilibrium may be an empirically relevant fact and one of the indeterminate equilibrium can resemble the stochastic property of the actual data quite well.