Вмешательство в гражданские конфликты: соотношение внутриполитических и структурных факторов

Международные процессы. 2024. Т. 2. № 22. С. 63–85.

Чернов Д. Н.

With the rise in civil conflicts, third-party interventions aimed at protecting and advancing national
interests have become common. However, despite potential benefits, such interventions can result in
negative reputational and material consequences for the intervening party. As such, decisions to intervene
may often confront domestic political constraints. This study integrates the institutional aspect
of democratic peace theory and neoclassical realism to examine internal and structural factors influence
the decision to intervene. Theoretically, enhanced democratic institutions are expected to produce a
moderating effect on intervention, but this effect is sidelined when structural incentives take hold. To test
these assumptions, a wide range of data sources are utilized, including the Uppsala Conflict Data Program
(UCDP) External Support Dataset and the International Military Intervention Correlates (IMIC)
developed at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO). Using these two datasets,
the author proposes to separate military and non-military interventions in order to test for potential
differences in effects that characteristics of political systems may have on them. Varieties of Democracy
data are employed to measure institutional characteristics. The analysis reveals heterogeneous effects
of different aspects of institutional design on the propensity to intervene. The author suggests that the
differences in effects could be attributed to variations in institutional specifics, public reactions, and types
of intervention. Specifically, military interventions as a result of their publicity and overtness produce
special short-term and long-term public opinion dynamics that are reflected in different effects of various
forms of political behavior. Structural incentives consistently increase the likelihood of intervention,
though they only partially mitigate the impact of differences in institutional characteristics.

Keywords: институты, institutions, neoclassical realism, неоклассический реализм, military intervention, structural realism, теория демократического мира, структурные факторы, democratic peace theory, civil conflicts, гражданские конфликты, вооруженное вмешательство