Кривая Бевериджа: что она говорит о ситуации на российском рынке труда?

Высшая школа экономики , 2024. № WP3/2024/05.

Kapeliushnikov R.

The unique situation that has developed in the Russian labor market in the 2020s is examined through the prism of the Beveridge curve. The key event in this period was the emergence of a massive overhang of vacant jobs, which has already reached 8%. The analysis shows that a dramatic upward shift in the Beveridge curve occurred at the peak of the coronavirus crisis. The main trigger for the vacancy escalation was the increased mismatch between the structure of the workforce and the structure of jobs due to sharp changes on the labor demand side. Both structural and cyclical components of unemployment are estimated. According to the results obtained, at the peak of the coronacrisis, the Russian labor market actually experienced a significant deterioration in matching, that is, the sharpened mismatch between labor demand and labor supply. This has led to an upward drift in the “natural” rate of unemployment, which is currently estimated at 4.5%. At the same time, the vacancy expansion during the second sanction crisis was mainly associated with the overheating of the economy caused by its transfer to a semi-military footing.

Keywords: рынок труда, безработица, unemployment, вакансии, vacancies, labor market, Beveridge curve, кривая Бевериджа