Что определяет миграционные намерения горожан: результаты опросов населения, проведенных в 10 регионах России в 2018-2023 гг.

Демографическое обозрение. 2024. Т. 11. № 4. С. 136–167.

Balaban M., Rodina O., Chertenkov K., Sharepina E.

The purpose of the article is to analyze what socio-demographic characteristics and characteristics of the place of residence determine the presence or absence of migration intentions. The source of data was a survey database (6,823 questionnaires in total) collected by street survey method as part of expeditions in 10 regions of Russia in 2018-2023, devoted to the analysis of migration processes (republics of Udmurtia, Bashkortostan, Buryatia, Khakassia, Komi, Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug, Sakhalin, Voronezh, Saratov, and Tver oblasts). Descriptive statistics, correlation analysis, and logistic regression were used to analyze the factors of migration intentions. The odds of having migration intentions were higher for young people than for older people; for women than for men; without a partner/spouse; unemployed and economically inactive compared to those with employment and with higher education compared to those without. Individual differences in migration intentions do not change when controlling for settlement variables. Populations in cities with 50 to 100 thousand inhabitants are more likely to have migration intentions, as are localities with worse urban environment characteristics, located in the periphery, with higher relative average wages. Specialization in mining and manufacturing industries, depopulation of more than 10% since 1989, high share of non-local residents, wide offer of professional education programs, in contrast, reduce the chances of those living in such areas to have migration intentions.

Keywords: внутренняя миграция, Россия, Russia, internal migration, migration intentions, миграционные намерения, факторы миграции, street survey, уличный опрос