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July 9, 2026
HSE Economists Use Search Queries to Forecast Birth Rates
Researchers from the HSE Faculty of Economic Sciences have shown that the accuracy of birth rate forecasts for Russia can be improved by almost 50% by incorporating the dynamics of online search queries related to pregnancy and childbirth into forecasting models. In the best-performing models, the forecasting error fell from 4.6% to 3.2%. The findings have been published in Populations and Economics.
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Paranormal beliefs and core knowledge confusions: A meta-analysis

Personality and Individual Differences. 2024. Vol. 230. Article 112780.
Gallyamova A., Komyaginskaya E., Grigoryev D.

This meta-analysis examines the relationship between paranormal beliefs and Core Knowledge Confusions (CKC), a concept introduced by Lindeman and Aarnio (2007) to explore the link between ontological errors and belief in the paranormal. The CKC, which uses metaphor classification to assess ontological confusion, suggests that cognitive processes organize information into ontologies, and our interpretation of literal versus metaphorical expressions reflects these categorizations. Despite advancements in education, ontological confusion persists, manifesting in various forms like mentalization of matter, physicalization of the mental, and biologization of the mental. Our analysis, encompassing 25 effect sizes with 16,129 participants from 11 countries and publications over 14 years, found a significant average effect size (r = .40) in the relationship between paranormal beliefs and the CKC, indicating a robust and consistent association across various populations and contexts. The study observed that contextual factors specific to data from Finland enhance the estimated magnitude of the effect size. Despite considerable heterogeneity and potential influences of unexamined moderators, the results suggest a universal cognitive pattern linking paranormal beliefs with certain types of ontological confusion. This meta-analysis underscores the need for further exploration into contextual variations in understanding the complex relationship between paranormal beliefs and ontological errors.

Research target: Psychology
Language: English
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Keywords: paranormal beliefs meta-analysisunfounded beliefscore knowledge confusionsontological confusion
Publication based on the results of:
Socio-cultural and psychological factors of integration and disintegration of Russian society in the context of global challenges (2024)
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