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July 9, 2026
HSE Economists Use Search Queries to Forecast Birth Rates
Researchers from the HSE Faculty of Economic Sciences have shown that the accuracy of birth rate forecasts for Russia can be improved by almost 50% by incorporating the dynamics of online search queries related to pregnancy and childbirth into forecasting models. In the best-performing models, the forecasting error fell from 4.6% to 3.2%. The findings have been published in Populations and Economics.
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Ontological confusion reconsidered: Introducing the new Ontological Confusion Scale

Applied Cognitive Psychology. 2025. Vol. 39. No. 6. Article e70150.
Komyaginskaya E., Gallyamova A., Golubkova A., Gnezdilov A., Ocheret A., Grigoryev D.

Ontological confusion refers to a cognitive error involving the misclassification of entities across distinct ontological domains—physical, biological, mental, and moral. While previous research links it to paranormal and pseudoscientific beliefs, existing measures—most notably the Core Knowledge Confusions (CKC) scale—suffer from conceptual ambiguity and cultural limitations. This paper introduces the Ontological Confusion Scale (OCS), designed to address these issues by evaluating seven types of ontological misclassification. Across two studies (N = 354 and N = 550), OCS demonstrates a robust unidimensional structure, high internal consistency, and strong convergent and discriminant validity. The scale predicts a range of unfounded beliefs, while outperforming CKC and belief in a just world in explaining unique variance. These findings support a broader view of ontological confusion as a general cognitive tendency underlying intuitive but erroneous reasoning across domains. OCS provides a reliable, culturally adaptable tool for research on belief formation and epistemic vulnerability.

Research target: Psychology Philosophy, Ethics, and Religious Studies
Language: English
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Keywords: belief in a just worldCognitive errorsanthropomorphismunfounded beliefscore knowledge confusionsontological confusionpromiscuous teleology
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