Аморфная «жесткая сила»? Подходы к реконцептуализации и эмпирическому измерению военной мощи в мировой политике

Политическая наука. 2024. № 2. С. 300–325.

Maltsev A.

The article focuses on the conceptual and methodological difficulties of empirical assessment of the states’ military capabilities. Contemporary IR theory and political science mostly interpret military power as a dispositional or episodic characteristic. The first approach comprises the estimation of resources and material capabilities available to a state to violently coerce (or resist coercion) in international politics. The second approach suggests that military power only actualizes itself through direct usage in armed conflicts. The article provides a detailed examination of the conceptual and empirical advantages and limitations of both approaches. As the literature review demonstrates, while realist IR literature piques a lot of attention to the distribution of military power in the international system, it struggles to resolve methodological difficulties of empirical assessment and, therefore, actual ranking of military capabilities of states. The second part of the article explores empirical attempts to measure military power in IR. The author concludes that existing solutions are limited to proxy indicators such as defense expenditures and military personnel numbers. The final part of the article suggests promising indicators of military power as a dispositional or episodic phenomenon.

Keywords: реализм, international influence, международное влияние, оборонные расходы, военное строительство, neorealism, Strategic capabilities, военная мощь, military power, weapons, defense economics, defense spending, потенциалы государств, вооружения и военная техника