?
An Empirical Test of Harrod’s Model
P. 283–294.
Orlando G., Rossa F. D.
After having illustrated in Chap. 13 the Harrod’s model and a chaotic specification of it, in this Chapter we are going to prove that (1) real data could be obtained by a suitable calibration of model’s parameters, (2) the calibrated model confirms theoretical predictions (Orlando and Della Rossa, Mathematics 7(6):524, 2019).
In book
Araujo R. A., Chen P., Giuliani A., Guerrero J., Moreira H. N., Stoop R., Orlando G. Springer, 2021.
Mishin A., Guerrieri L., Kim J., / Series 2026-042 "Finance and Economics Discussion Series (FEDS)". 2026.
Within narrowly defined industries, the most productive firms produce far more than the least productive from the same inputs, and this dispersion widens in downturns. We build a tractable representative-agent model in which financial frictions—adverse selection and moral hazard—make firms sort endogenously into lenders, strategic defaulters, and producers. As credit conditions vary, the resulting misallocation ...
Added: June 28, 2026
Andreev M., M. Udara Peiris, Alexander Shirobokov et al., Annals of Finance 2024 Vol. 20 P. 167–197
Commodity-exporting economies display procyclicality with the price of commodity exports. However, the evidence for the relative importance of commodity price shocks for aggregate fluctuations remains inconclusive. Using Russian data from 2001 to 2018 we estimate a small open economy New Keynesian model with a banking system and leveraged domestic firms who default on their unsecured ...
Added: February 19, 2025
Kapeliushnikov R., / Высшая школа экономики. Серия WP3 "Проблемы рынка труда". 2024. № WP3/2024/01.
The history of economic thought knows a few of heated methodological controversies (Methodenstreit), the most famous of which was a “battle” at the end of the 19th century between Austrian and New historical schools on proper methods of social sciences. Later at the turn of the 1930–1940s a dispute arose between J.M. Keynes, on the one ...
Added: December 18, 2024
Orlando G., Sportelli M., , in: Consequences of Social Transformation for Economic Theory. Proceedings of the 2022 Euro-Asian Symposium on Economic Theory (EASET), Ekaterinburg, Russia.: Ekaterinburg: Springer, 2022. P. 5–34.
This work summarizes recent advances in modelling and econometrics for alternative directions in macroeconomics and cycle theories. Starting from the definition of a cycle and continuing with a historical overview, some basic nonlinear models of the business cycle are introduced. Furthermore, some dynamic stochastic models of general equilibrium (DSGE) and autoregressive models are considered. Advances ...
Added: February 22, 2024
Araujo R. A., Chen P., Giuliani A. et al., Springer, 2021.
This interdisciplinary book argues that the economy has an underlying non-linear structure and that business cycles are endogenous, which allows a greater explanatory power with respect to the traditional assumption that dynamics are stochastic and shocks are exogenous.
The first part of this work is formal-methodological and provides the mathematical background needed for the remainder, while ...
Added: April 14, 2023
Гусева М. Е., Silaev A. M., Вестник Санкт-Петербургского университета. Серия 5. Экономика 2021 Т. 37 № 2 С. 298–317
In the present research, the features of applying two models for estimating macroeconomic dynamic in the USA are investigated: Bayesian vector autoregression and Bayesian vector autoregression with Markov switching. The research goal is to identify periods, structure of fluctuations and the main directions of interaction of the variables (real US GDP and employment) using Bayesian ...
Added: October 13, 2021
Liudmila Kitrar, Tamara Lipkind, / NRU HSE. Series SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY, INNOVATION "SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY, INNOVATION". 2021. No. WP BRP 121/STI/2021.
The article proposes a new set of composite indicators-predictors in business tendency surveys, which allow identifying early information signals of a cyclical nature in the economic behavior of business agents. The main criterion for the efficiency of such indicators is their sensitivity to a cyclical pattern and changes in the dynamics of statistical referents. Statistically ...
Added: October 7, 2021
Mamonov M. E., Pestova A., Pankova V. et al., Экономическая политика 2020 Т. 15 № 5 С. 130–159
This paper provides a joint analysis of business and credit cycles with a focus on unobservable factors affecting both cycles, at the cross-country level. Using quarterly data for 19 developed countries and Russia for the period from 1994 to 2018, we build a system of two dynamic probit models, which includes a cross-correlation between the ...
Added: July 9, 2021
Kitrar L. A., Lipkind T. M., Вопросы статистики 2021 Т. 28 № 2 С. 24–41
The article proposes a new set of composite indicators-predictors in business tendency surveys, which allow identifying early information signals of a cyclical nature in the economic behavior of business agents. The main criterion for the efficiency of such indicators is their sensitivity to a cyclical pattern and changes in the dynamics of statistical referents. Property ...
Added: May 11, 2021
Andreev M., Peiris U., Shirobokov A. et al., / Series 57 "WORKING PAPER SERIES". 2020. No. 57.
Commodity exporting economies display procyclicality with the price of commodity exports. Although financial frictions may amplify commodity price shocks, how they do so for net exporters is unclear. Using Russian data from 2001-2018 we estimate a small open economy New Keynesian model with a banking system and leveraged domestic firms who issue secured debt and ...
Added: June 4, 2020
Andreev M., Peiris U., Shirobokov A. et al., Russian Journal of Money and Finance 2019 Vol. 78 No. 3 P. 3–37
We study a small open economy New Keynesian model calibrated to the Russian economy with a banking system that trades secured and unsecured debt. Firms endogenously default on their unsecured debt obligations over the business cycle. We examine the effectiveness of four alternative countercyclical policies that respond to the growth in unsecured credit in the ...
Added: June 4, 2020
Avtonomov V. S., Makasheva N. A., , in: Handbook on the History of Economic AnalysisVol. 1: Great Economists since Petty and Boisguilbert.: Northampton, Cheltenham: Edward Elgar Publishing, 2016. P. 399–403.
The entry contains a biographical profil of M.I. Tugan-Baranovsky and inform the reader about his works, political activity and ethical views. It puts emphasis on his contribution to the theory of business cycles, economic history and his views on socialism as a positive doctrine. ...
Added: June 1, 2020
Goodhart C., Isakov K., Peiris Udara et al., HSE Economic Journal 2018 Vol. 22 No. 3 P. 460–479
We investigate the consequences of excessive international debt overhang as they relate to both debtor and creditor countries. In particular, we assess the impact of monetary policy on financial stability and how it can be used to smooth borrowers, as well as creditors, consumption over the business cycle. Based on [Goodhart, Peiris, Tsomocos, 2018], we ...
Added: October 14, 2018
Smirnov Sergey, Kondrashov Nikolay, , in: Business Cycles in BRICS.: Springer, 2019. Ch. 22 P. 363–375.
In large countries, the development of national macroeconomic business cycles clearly involves regional nuances that, as a rule, fall outside scholars’ fields of vision, especially when monitoring the current economic situation. Regional statistics published by the Russian Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) are reviewed in terms of quality, and radical disagreement between “month-on-month” and “year-on-year” ...
Added: August 20, 2018
Smirnov Sergey, Ozyildirim A., Picchetti P., , in: Business Cycles in BRICS.: Springer, 2019. Ch. 1 P. 1–6.
Background and motivation for a study of business cycles, business tendency surveys (BTSs), and cyclical indicators in the BRICS countries are specified. The main concepts and problems involved in monitoring and forecasting business cycles in emerging countries and countries in transition are overviewed; the importance of the experience of the BRICS in this context is ...
Added: August 20, 2018
Goodhart C., Peiris U., Tsomocos D., Journal of Financial Stability 2018 No. 26 P. 265–278
Most discussions of the Greek debt overhang have focussed on the implications for Greece. We show that when additional funds released to the debtor (Greece), via debt restructuring, are used efficiently in pursuit of a practicable business plan, then both debtor and creditor can benefit. We examine a dynamic two country model calibrated to Greek ...
Added: November 28, 2017
Smirnov S. V., Kondrashov N. V., / NRU Higher School of Economics. Series EC "Economics". 2017. No. 169.
Regional statistics published by the Russian Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) are reviewed in terms of quality, and radical disagreement between “month-on-month” and “year-on-year” monthly statistics is identified. In view of this, an original method is proposed for estimating the level of Regional Economic Activity (REA), based on monthly official regional statistics in five key ...
Added: August 9, 2017
Sloev I., Lianos G., / Series SSRN Working Paper Series "SSRN Working Paper Series". 2015.
We consider the problem of optimal allocation of the marketing budget between customer acquisition and customer retention by a firm over the trade cycle. In line with the Schumpeterian idea of creative destruction, we find that under perfect capital markets customer retention increases with the state of the trade cycle (pro-cyclical) and customer acquisition decreases ...
Added: February 17, 2017
Смирнов С.В., Френкель А. А., Кондрашов Н.В., Вопросы статистики 2016 № 12 С. 29–38
This article proposes an original method for estimating regional economic activity in Russia. It is based on monthly official regional statistics in five main sectors of the Russian economy (industry, construction, retail trade, wholesale trade and paid services) but transforms it into specially constructed dichotomous variables which eliminate an excessive volatility of initial time-series.
Indices of ...
Added: December 19, 2016
Egiev S., / Series WP BRP "Basic research program". 2016.
I study real effects of uncertainty shocks. Using time-varying volatility of the forecast error, I construct a two-part uncertainty metric that consists of persistent and volatile, burst- like components. These indices are used to study empirically several predictions of un- certainty models: that uncertainty shocks have real effects, that these effects realize in a downturn/overshoot ...
Added: October 21, 2016
Korotayev A., Grinin L. E., Tausch A., Springer, 2016.
This thought-provoking monograph analyzes long- medium- and short-term global cycles of prosperity, recession, and depression, plotting them against centuries of important world events. Major research on economic and political cycles is integrated to clarify evolving relationships between the global center and its periphery as well as current worldwide economic upheavals and potential future developments. Central ...
Added: October 15, 2016
Springer, 2019.
This volume focuses on the analysis and measurement of business cycles in Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS). Divided into five parts, it begins with an overview of the main concepts and problems involved in monitoring and forecasting business cycles. Then it highlights the role of BRICS in the global economy and explores ...
Added: June 21, 2016
Lipkind T. M., Kitrar L. A., Ostapkovich G. V. et al., Вопросы статистики 2015 № 10 С. 14–25
The authors systematize the most well-known concepts and definitions of potential output and gaps according to the various economic schools approaches. The article also provides a typology of basic econometric methods for estimating potential level and output gap in the national gross product dynamics.
The authors give a brief description of various econometric methods of statistical ...
Added: December 16, 2015
Pestova A., / NRU Higher School of Economics. Series WP BRP "Economics/EC". 2015. No. WP BRP 94/EC/2015.
In this paper, I develop the leading indicators of the business cycle turning points exploiting the quarterly panel dataset comprising OECD countries and Russia over the 1980-2013 period. Contrasting to the previous studies, I combine data on OECD countries and Russia into a single dataset and develop universal models suitable for the entire sample with ...
Added: May 5, 2015