Business Cycles in BRICS

Springer, 2019.

Academic editor: Smirnov S. V., A. Ozyildirim, P. Picchetti

Under the general editorship: Smirnov Sergey, A. Ozyildirim, P. Picchetti

This volume focuses on the analysis and measurement of business cycles in Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS). Divided into five parts, it begins with an overview of the main concepts and problems involved in monitoring and forecasting business cycles. Then it highlights the role of BRICS in the global economy and explores the interrelatedness of business cycles within BRICS. In turn, part two provides studies on the historical development of business cycles in the individual BRICS countries and describes the driving forces behind those cycles. Parts three and four present national business tendency surveys and composite cyclical indices for real-time monitoring and forecasting of various BRICS economies, while the final part discusses how the lessons learned in the BRICS countries can be used for the analysis of business cycles and their socio-political consequences in other emerging countries.

Chapters

Russian Business Tendency Surveys by HSE and Rosstat

Kitrar Liudmila, Lipkind Tamara, Ostapkovich Georgy, , in: Business Cycles in BRICS.: Springer, 2019. Ch. 13 P. 233–251.

The chapter describes information content, methodological features and national practices of business tendency surveys (BTS) in Russia. These surveys are conducted jointly by the National Research University Higher School of Economics (HSE) and the Russian Federation State Statistic Services (Rosstat), and provide qualitative data on sectoral trends and short-term fluctuations over the last two decades. The ...

Added: July 31, 2017

Institutions, Productivity Change and Growth

Andrei Akhremenko, Petrov A., Yureskul E., , in: Business Cycles in BRICS.: Springer, 2019. Ch. 3 P. 29–54.

In this chapter we aim to consider the interdependence between total factor productivity, economic welfare, and political institutions using BRICS as an empirical example. While relationships between each pair of factors have already been subject to scientific inquiry, we attempt to look at the productivity-institutions nexus in conjunction with economic development. We utilize nonparametric methods ...

Added: July 10, 2018

Introduction

Smirnov Sergey, Ozyildirim A., Picchetti P., , in: Business Cycles in BRICS.: Springer, 2019. Ch. 1 P. 1–6.

Background and motivation for a study of business cycles, business tendency surveys (BTSs), and cyclical indicators in the BRICS countries are specified. The main concepts and problems involved in monitoring and forecasting business cycles in emerging countries and countries in transition are overviewed; the importance of the experience of the BRICS in this context is ...

Added: August 20, 2018

BRICS in the Global Economy

Smirnov Sergey, Avdeeva D., , in: Business Cycles in BRICS.: Springer, 2019. Ch. 2 P. 9–28.

This chapter begins with a brief history of the BRICS – from a purely analytical concept to the real-world political group with its own financial infrastructure. It then considers the role of the member countries in the global economy in terms of macro-indicators (territory, population and GDP), the production of a variety of key goods, ...

Added: August 20, 2018

Economic Fluctuations and Their Drivers in Russia

Smirnov Sergey, , in: Business Cycles in BRICS.: Springer, 2019. Ch. 6 P. 89–119.

In many respects, the historical trajectory of the Russian economy during the Twentieth century has been a terra incognita until now. As for the official statistics, there are at least three important reasons for this. First, many relevant indicators were either not measured, or were kept secret and never published. Second, Russia (as the RSFSR) ...

Added: August 20, 2018

A Survey of Composite Leading Indices for Russia

Smirnov Sergey, , in: Business Cycles in BRICS.: Springer, 2019. Ch. 21 P. 347–361.

Available composite cyclical indicators for Russia are surveyed, their components are enumerated and analysed.  The aims, guiding concepts, and approaches of the newly established Russian Economic Cycle Dating Committee are also described. All the currently available monthly Composite Leading Indices (CLIs) are tested against the most recent cyclical turning points for their capacity to provide ...

Added: August 20, 2018

Indices of Regional Economic Activity for Russia

Smirnov Sergey, Kondrashov Nikolay, , in: Business Cycles in BRICS.: Springer, 2019. Ch. 22 P. 363–375.

In large countries, the development of national macroeconomic business cycles clearly involves regional nuances that, as a rule, fall outside scholars’ fields of vision, especially when monitoring the current economic situation. Regional statistics published by the Russian Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) are reviewed in terms of quality, and radical disagreement between “month-on-month” and “year-on-year” ...

Added: August 20, 2018

Measurement, Monitoring, and Forecasting Economic Cycles: BRICS Lessons

Smirnov Sergey, Ozyildirim A., Kershoff G., , in: Business Cycles in BRICS.: Springer, 2019. Ch. 29 P. 499–513.

The current best practices in measuring, monitoring, and forecasting economic cycles are drawn from the experience of mature economies such as the USA, Japan, and several Western European countries. Meanwhile, there are a lot of peculiarities in emerging economies that should be kept in mind when developing a system for tracking and forecasting their short-run ...

Added: August 20, 2018

Keywords: business cycles, BRICS countries

Publication based on the results of: Analysis and forecasting of development of the Russian economy in the conditions of post-crisis growth. Assessment of prospects and risks of acceleration of the country's socio-economic development under conditions of the instability of the external environment (2018)