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Macroprudential Policy and Financial (In)stability Analysis in the Russian Federation
Russian Journal of Money and Finance. 2019. Vol. 78. No. 3. P. 3–37.
We study a small open economy New Keynesian model calibrated to the Russian economy with a banking system that trades secured and unsecured debt. Firms endogenously default on their unsecured debt obligations over the business cycle. We examine the effectiveness of four alternative countercyclical policies that respond to the growth in unsecured credit in the economy. The lean-against-the-wind monetary policy is the most effective in simultaneously affecting the real economy and stabilizing the banking system in response to both oil price and total factor productivity shocks. The countercyclical deposit reserve requirement was found to play a stabilizing role following an oil shock, while the countercyclical capital adequacy requirement helped to stabilize the banking system after a total factor productivity shock.
Mishin A., Guerrieri L., Kim J., / Series 2026-042 "Finance and Economics Discussion Series (FEDS)". 2026.
Within narrowly defined industries, the most productive firms produce far more than the least productive from the same inputs, and this dispersion widens in downturns. We build a tractable representative-agent model in which financial frictions—adverse selection and moral hazard—make firms sort endogenously into lenders, strategic defaulters, and producers. As credit conditions vary, the resulting misallocation ...
Added: June 28, 2026
Глазова А. М., Nevalennyi M., Синяков А. А., / Банк России. Серия Препринты Банка России "Серия докладов об экономических исследованиях". 2025. № 154.
The paper proposes a graphical model of a small open economy. The dynamics of the graphical model is then illustrated using impulse responses from the corresponding formal semi-structural model (QPM model). The authors have several goals in preparing this description of the graphical macroeconomic model. The first goal of the paper is to present an adapted ...
Added: June 27, 2026
Ivashkovskaya I., Grishunin S., Makeeva E. Y. et al., International Journal of Financial Studies 2026 Vol. 14 No. 5 Article 120
Inclusive growth has increasingly emerged as a central framework for understanding how firms can align economic performance with social inclusion and environmental responsibility, particularly in emerging markets characterized by institutional volatility. In the context of geopolitical shocks and economic sanctions, such as those faced by Russia during 2022–2023, the normative meaning of inclusive growth is ...
Added: May 6, 2026
Shchepeleva M., Procedia Computer Science 2025 No. 266 P. 447–455
We investigate the transmission of systemic stress in a sample of selected advanced and emerging market economies for the period between August 2008 and June 2024. Using national SRISK indices, we estimate high-dimensional vector autoregressions and conduct Granger causality tests. We display the lead-lag linkages among the countries as a network and examine its topology. We find that ...
Added: February 12, 2026
Leonidov A., Ponomarenko A. A., Radionov S. et al., Journal of Asian Economics 2025 Vol. 101 Article 102077
The paper outlines the concept of a parsimonious international settlement system for emerging market economies that does not necessitate the transformation of existing national financial systems. Simulation analysis showed that the system has the potential to accommodate up to two-thirds of international payment flows between 34 countries. Notably, market forces related to exchange rate fluctuations ...
Added: November 14, 2025
Ионцев М. А., Финансовый бизнес 2025 № 6 (264) С. 120–127
This article proposes a methodology for systemic risk assessment within a conventional financial system adapted to the specifics of the digital asset ecosystem, which distinguishes between vulnerabilities and shocks. Thus, shocks are sudden or unexpected events that have a negative impact on the financial system, while financial vulnerabilities are factors that increase the negative impact ...
Added: November 10, 2025
Kosov M., Вестник экономической безопасности 2024 № 1 С. 198–202
The sanctions pressure of the United States and the European Union on our country aims to weaken the Russian economy. In other words, to exclude banks’ operations on the international financial market and, if possible, freeze their assets. In February 2022, sanctions were imposed against Russian credit institutions, such as: disconnection from SWIFT, a ban ...
Added: October 22, 2025
Банникова В. А., Виноградова О. С., Penikas H. I., Вопросы экономики 2025 № 9 С. 103–125
События 2022—2023 гг. сформировали условия для изучения квазиестественного эксперимента с целью оценить влияние мер поддержки Банка России на биржевую стоимость акций банков. Общий фон внешних событий воздействовал на всех участников фондового рынка. Однако по отношению к банкам было осуществлено дополнительное воздействие, которого не было для иных компаний, — это меры поддержки банков, принятые в 2022 ...
Added: September 9, 2025
Shirobokov A., Annals of Finance 2025 Vol. 21 P. 211–242
Economic sanctions have recently become a prominent tool in international policymaking. However, the mechanisms through which sanctions are transmitted and their impact on the domestic financial sector remain unclear. This paper employs a calibrated New Keynesian small open economy model to analyze the transmission channels of sanctions-induced terms of trade shocks and their impact on ...
Added: July 30, 2025
Balanda B., ЭКО 2025 Т. 55 № 6 С. 222–240
The paper compares the influence of macroeconomic factors on the financial stability of the banking systems of Russia and Brazil using SVAR modeling in 2000-2020. It is commonly believed that the economies of Russia and Brazil are similar, but the study revealed significant differences in their banking systems. The Russian banking system has proven to ...
Added: July 16, 2025
Fedyunina A., Drapkin I. M., Simachev Y. V. et al., Area Development and Policy 2025 Vol. 10 No. 4 P. 572–596
Despite frequent international trade shocks, the impact of sanctions-induced trade reorientation on firm-level revenues remain insufficiently explored. This study examines how the shift in imports from Europe to Asia influenced revenue dynamics among Russian manufacturing firms following the 2022 sanctions. Utilising a representative sample of 1879 firms, we employ weighted probit and ordered probit regressions ...
Added: July 3, 2025
Lapteva E., Pilnik N., Вестник Санкт-Петербургского университета. Серия 5. Экономика 2025 Т. 41 № 3 С. 340–363
The article systematizes, synthesizes, and compares the results of studies aimed at modeling and assessing the effectiveness of macroprudential policy both at the level of individual countries and in a cross-country context. It provides an interdisciplinary review that integrates empirical findings with theoretical frameworks of macroprudential regulation, offering a novel analytical perspective on its effectiveness ...
Added: June 30, 2025
Klaro Ramires P. M., Вестник Московского университета. Серия 6: Экономика 2025 Т. 60 № 2 С. 178–201
Growing importance of social and environmental issues encourage business, society, and state to combine their efforts in implementing the sustainable development agenda. The purpose of this study is to identify institutional determinants that influence Russian companies’ corporate sustainability. The object of the empirical study is big Russian companies that implement sustainable practices of various scales ...
Added: May 6, 2025
Popova P., / Series WP BRP "Series FE "Financial Economics""". 2025. No. WP BRP 97.
Added: April 6, 2025
Mukhametov O., Современная Европа 2025 № 2 С. 79–91
The European Central Bank (ECB) has been using unconventional monetary policy (UMP) since 2009, but the set of measures and their scale have varied significantly over the years. Until 2022, the measures were stimulatory and gradually expanded to increase aggregate demand in the economy. However, since 2022, the ECB has been pursuing contractionary UMP to ...
Added: April 6, 2025
Stolbov M., Shchepeleva M., Journal of Finance and Data Science 2024 Vol. 10 Article 100144
We identify robust predictors of global systemic risk proxied by conditional capital shortfall (SRISK) among a comprehensive set of commodity prices for the period between January 2004 and December 2021. The search is based on a battery of ML variable selection algorithms which apply both to price levels and price shocks in the presence of ...
Added: February 20, 2025
Andreev M., M. Udara Peiris, Alexander Shirobokov et al., Annals of Finance 2024 Vol. 20 P. 167–197
Commodity-exporting economies display procyclicality with the price of commodity exports. However, the evidence for the relative importance of commodity price shocks for aggregate fluctuations remains inconclusive. Using Russian data from 2001 to 2018 we estimate a small open economy New Keynesian model with a banking system and leveraged domestic firms who default on their unsecured ...
Added: February 19, 2025