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Commodity cycles and financial instability in emerging economies
Annals of Finance. 2024. Vol. 20. P. 167–197.
Commodity-exporting economies display procyclicality with the price of commodity exports. However, the evidence for the relative importance of commodity price shocks for aggregate fluctuations remains inconclusive. Using Russian data from 2001 to 2018 we estimate a small open economy New Keynesian model with a banking system and leveraged domestic firms who default on their unsecured domestic debt. We show that allowing default rates to vary endogenously over the business cycle amplifies the estimated contribution of commodity price shocks. Endogenous default introduces time-varying wedges that amplify the response of commodity price shocks through demand and income effects rather than the relative price effects that are found in the country risk-premium, balance sheet, and financial accelerator channels. We find that the contribution of commodity prices to explaining fluctuations in GDP rises from 2.5 to 33.6% while for deposits and non-performing loans, it increases from 5.3% and 1.6% to 71.3% and 60.4%, respectively.
М.: Московский Политех, 2026.
Основной целью конференции является освещение проблем, связанных с внедрением технологий искусственного интеллекта в управление городским хозяйством города Москвы. Участниками были представлены инновационные решения для оптимизации использования ресурсов и городской инфраструктуры. Особое внимание было уделено решению задач прогнозирования и аналитического моделирования для повышения эффективности работы городских систем.
Тезисы докладов содержат разностороннее исследование теоретических и практических вопросов развития ...
Added: September 16, 2026
Abdullaev A., Sivaev S., Regional Research of Russia 2026 Vol. 16 No. 3 P. 518–530
The article examines the specific features of implementing regional programs of targeted social support for housing and communal services payments in Russia. The aim of the study is to identify differences between the federal subjects in key parameters of the program, targeting and coverage of households with housing subsidies, as well as in the results of ...
Added: September 16, 2026
Gokhberg L., Abdrakhmanova G., Kutsenko E. et al., Вопросы статистики 2026 Т. 33 № 4 С. 5–20
This article examines the methodological and practical issues associated with the transition to the new edition of the All-Russian Classifier of Economic Activities (OKVED) – OKVED3. The relevance of the study stems from the need to reflect contemporary structural changes in the economy, related to the transformation of the existing economic activities and emergence of ...
Added: September 15, 2026
Makarov I. A., Россия в глобальной политике 2026 Т. 24 № 4 (140) С. 164–182
Три с половиной года остаётся до 2030-го – окончания срока реализации Целей устойчивого развития (ЦУР) – главной международной инициативы, устанавливающей долгосрочные ориентиры для будущего человечества. Уже очевидно, что она провалилась: преодоление бедности, решение экологических проблем и построение инклюзивного и справедливого общества остались красивой мечтой. Кто-то может воспринимать ЦУР как памятник человеческой наивности. Но надо понимать, что эта ...
Added: September 14, 2026
Fedorova E., Ledyaeva S., Stepanov V., International Review of Economics and Finance 2026
This study investigates the influence of low-quality information, specifically fake news, on short
term stock returns, contributing to the discourse on signal theory and behavioral economics.
Employing a machine learning approach, the authors developed a robust fake news dataset from
publicly available sources. Sentiment analysis was conducted using a FinBERT model fine-tuned
for stock market contexts, alongside extensive dataset ...
Added: September 12, 2026
Карпова Д. А., Sizova I., Gordin V. E., Креативные индустрии 2026 Т. 2 № 2 С. 10–31
This article examines the musealisation of industrial heritage and its role in regional and corporate branding. The relevance of this study stems from deindustrialisation processes, the growth of industrial tourism, and the need to preserve historical memory, which is particularly important in the context of Russian realities—the lack of a legal definition of the concept ...
Added: September 9, 2026
Veselova L. S., Морозова В. С., Дарчиева А. А., Управленец 2026 Vol. 17 No. 4 P. 66–78
На фоне развивающихся торгово-экономических отношений между Россией и Китаем российские десерт- ные бренды получают новые возможности для выхода на китайский рынок. Однако их присутствие ограничено преи- мущественно приграничными регионами, а продвижение сдерживается недостаточной адаптацией к социокультурным особенностям китайских потребителей. Статья посвящена разработке практических рекомендаций по формированию стратегии адаптации российских десертных брендов к специфике китайского рынка. ...
Added: September 9, 2026
Kilinc-Ata N., Warong M. M., SN Business & Economics 2026 Vol. 6 Article 326(2026)
Green transitions are widely expected to attract cleaner capital and accelerate decarbonization; however, emerging-economy evidence increasingly challenges this assumption. This study examines the dynamic relationship between energy transition indicators and capital inflows in BRICS+ economies over the period 1996–2022, explicitly testing the “Green Haven” hypothesis under conditions of global uncertainty. Unlike much of the existing ...
Added: September 9, 2026
Warong M. M., International Journal of Diplomacy and Economy 2026
This study conducted in Indonesia between 2000 and 2023, demonstrates a complex, non-linear interplay between the economic environment and the emergence of clean energy start-ups. Using Autoregressive Distributed Lag and Markov Switching models, the research shows that start-up formation coincides with periods of lower GDP growth, suggesting that innovation is often spurred by necessity. Two ...
Added: September 9, 2026
Mishin A., Guerrieri L., Kim J., / Series 2026-042 "Finance and Economics Discussion Series (FEDS)". 2026.
Within narrowly defined industries, the most productive firms produce far more than the least productive from the same inputs, and this dispersion widens in downturns. We build a tractable representative-agent model in which financial frictions—adverse selection and moral hazard—make firms sort endogenously into lenders, strategic defaulters, and producers. As credit conditions vary, the resulting misallocation ...
Added: June 28, 2026
Глазова А. М., Nevalennyi M., Синяков А. А., / Банк России. Серия Препринты Банка России "Серия докладов об экономических исследованиях". 2025. № 154.
The paper proposes a graphical model of a small open economy. The dynamics of the graphical model is then illustrated using impulse responses from the corresponding formal semi-structural model (QPM model). The authors have several goals in preparing this description of the graphical macroeconomic model. The first goal of the paper is to present an adapted ...
Added: June 27, 2026
Shchepeleva M., Procedia Computer Science 2025 No. 266 P. 447–455
We investigate the transmission of systemic stress in a sample of selected advanced and emerging market economies for the period between August 2008 and June 2024. Using national SRISK indices, we estimate high-dimensional vector autoregressions and conduct Granger causality tests. We display the lead-lag linkages among the countries as a network and examine its topology. We find that ...
Added: February 12, 2026
Ионцев М. А., Финансовый бизнес 2025 № 6 (264) С. 120–127
This article proposes a methodology for systemic risk assessment within a conventional financial system adapted to the specifics of the digital asset ecosystem, which distinguishes between vulnerabilities and shocks. Thus, shocks are sudden or unexpected events that have a negative impact on the financial system, while financial vulnerabilities are factors that increase the negative impact ...
Added: November 10, 2025
Kosov M., Вестник экономической безопасности 2024 № 1 С. 198–202
The sanctions pressure of the United States and the European Union on our country aims to weaken the Russian economy. In other words, to exclude banks’ operations on the international financial market and, if possible, freeze their assets. In February 2022, sanctions were imposed against Russian credit institutions, such as: disconnection from SWIFT, a ban ...
Added: October 22, 2025
Банникова В. А., Виноградова О. С., Penikas H. I., Вопросы экономики 2025 № 9 С. 103–125
События 2022—2023 гг. сформировали условия для изучения квазиестественного эксперимента с целью оценить влияние мер поддержки Банка России на биржевую стоимость акций банков. Общий фон внешних событий воздействовал на всех участников фондового рынка. Однако по отношению к банкам было осуществлено дополнительное воздействие, которого не было для иных компаний, — это меры поддержки банков, принятые в 2022 ...
Added: September 9, 2025
Shirobokov A., Annals of Finance 2025 Vol. 21 P. 211–242
Economic sanctions have recently become a prominent tool in international policymaking. However, the mechanisms through which sanctions are transmitted and their impact on the domestic financial sector remain unclear. This paper employs a calibrated New Keynesian small open economy model to analyze the transmission channels of sanctions-induced terms of trade shocks and their impact on ...
Added: July 30, 2025
Balanda B., ЭКО 2025 Т. 55 № 6 С. 222–240
The paper compares the influence of macroeconomic factors on the financial stability of the banking systems of Russia and Brazil using SVAR modeling in 2000-2020. It is commonly believed that the economies of Russia and Brazil are similar, but the study revealed significant differences in their banking systems. The Russian banking system has proven to ...
Added: July 16, 2025
Lapteva E., Pilnik N., Вестник Санкт-Петербургского университета. Серия 5. Экономика 2025 Т. 41 № 3 С. 340–363
The article systematizes, synthesizes, and compares the results of studies aimed at modeling and assessing the effectiveness of macroprudential policy both at the level of individual countries and in a cross-country context. It provides an interdisciplinary review that integrates empirical findings with theoretical frameworks of macroprudential regulation, offering a novel analytical perspective on its effectiveness ...
Added: June 30, 2025
Popova P., / Series WP BRP "Series FE "Financial Economics""". 2025. No. WP BRP 97.
Added: April 6, 2025
Mukhametov O., Современная Европа 2025 № 2 С. 79–91
The European Central Bank (ECB) has been using unconventional monetary policy (UMP) since 2009, but the set of measures and their scale have varied significantly over the years. Until 2022, the measures were stimulatory and gradually expanded to increase aggregate demand in the economy. However, since 2022, the ECB has been pursuing contractionary UMP to ...
Added: April 6, 2025
Stolbov M., Shchepeleva M., Journal of Finance and Data Science 2024 Vol. 10 Article 100144
We identify robust predictors of global systemic risk proxied by conditional capital shortfall (SRISK) among a comprehensive set of commodity prices for the period between January 2004 and December 2021. The search is based on a battery of ML variable selection algorithms which apply both to price levels and price shocks in the presence of ...
Added: February 20, 2025
Музейный целевой капитал как источник финансовой устойчивости музея: история и современное состояние
Sizova I., Вестник Томского государственного университета. Культурология и искусствоведение 2024 № 56 С. 215–228
The financial stability of museums today is the most important condition for their effective development. It is, however, quite challenging to maintain it during times of force majeure. And here fundraising tools come to the aid of museum employees, among which the endowment is becoming increasingly popular. This article presents the results of work within ...
Added: January 10, 2025
Kapeliushnikov R., / Высшая школа экономики. Серия WP3 "Проблемы рынка труда". 2024. № WP3/2024/01.
The history of economic thought knows a few of heated methodological controversies (Methodenstreit), the most famous of which was a “battle” at the end of the 19th century between Austrian and New historical schools on proper methods of social sciences. Later at the turn of the 1930–1940s a dispute arose between J.M. Keynes, on the one ...
Added: December 18, 2024
Tomtosov A., Borsa Istanbul Review 2024 Vol. 24 No. 1 P. 201–217
Momentum, size, and low volatility in emerging markets regularly exhibit increased correlations across factors and markets in periods of negative returns. I provide a framework to distinguish a unique source of risk from a set of factors in the stage of portfolio formation. The framework is based on discarding duplicate positions that exceed half the ...
Added: September 6, 2024