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Debt, Recovery Rates and the Greek Dilemma
Journal of Financial Stability. 2018. No. 26. P. 265–278.
Goodhart C., Peiris U., Tsomocos D.
Most discussions of the Greek debt overhang have focussed on the implications for Greece. We show that when additional funds released to the debtor (Greece), via debt restructuring, are used efficiently in pursuit of a practicable business plan, then both debtor and creditor can benefit. We examine a dynamic two country model calibrated to Greek and German economies and support two-steady states, one with endogenous default and one without, depending on creditors expectations. In the default steady state, debt forgiveness lowers the volatility of both German and Greek consumption whereas demanding higher recovery rates has the opposite effect.
Ustyuzhanin V., / Series Econometrics "arxiv". 2026.
This paper proposes Covariate-Balanced Weighted Stacked Difference-in-Differences (CBWSDID), a design-based extension of weighted stacked DID for settings in which untreated trends may be conditionally rather than unconditionally parallel. The estimator separates within-subexperiment design adjustment from across-subexperiment aggregation: matching or weighting improves treated-control comparability within each stacked subexperiment, while the corrective stacked weights of Wing et ...
Added: April 3, 2026
Vorchik A., / Social Science Research Network. Серия SSRN Working Paper Series "SSRN Working Paper Series". 2026.
This article is devoted to the phenomenon of intrinsic motivation, to understand which two models are proposed. We study how positive/negative intrinsic motivation to work (experienced utility) affects worker's individual labour supply (model I) and the amount of effort they exert (model II). In model I, we use intrinsic motivation to explain the positive/negative slope ...
Added: March 15, 2026
Vorchik A., Мамышев М. А., / Series Social Science Research Network "Social Science Research Network". 2025.
In this paper, we develop a formal mathematical model aimed to explain the Dunning-Kruger effect that beginners systematically overestimate their own competence in various fields of knowledge and activity. We argue that the Dunning-Kruger effect arises from the emotional nature of confidence combined with unknown unknowns that it simply can not take into account due ...
Added: February 11, 2026
Musaev A. U., Vorchik A., / Series Social Science Research Network "Social Science Research Network". 2026.
This paper attempts to model the evolutionary theory of modernization and democratization. The model reflects the key provisions of R. Inglehart and C. Welzel's theory and provides a microfoundation for the adaptation of subjective values to the objective importances of the survival factors and the structure of the labour markets from the perspective of evolutionary ...
Added: February 10, 2026
Antsygina A., Teteryatnikova M., Tremewan J. C. et al., / Series "SSRN Working Paper Series". 2025.
Many competitive environments allow for a third party to be indirectly involved by supporting one or both sides in the conflict. Such support can come from trade partners, colleagues, or allies, who can in turn benefit from a supported party's success. We use theory and an experiment to investigate how support relationships develop endogenously in ...
Added: January 31, 2026
Akhmedova A., / Series "SSRN Working Paper Series". 2026.
The study explores a psychological phenomenon of inaction inertia-avoiding action after missing a more favourable opportunity. Unlike action inertia (e.g.,sunk costs effect), inaction inertia has been less studied, particularly in economic contexts. Considering the reference dependent nature of the phenomenon, I build on the work of Kőszegi and Rabin (2006) to examine how past experiences ...
Added: January 23, 2026
Kuchumova (Paramonova) Y. A., Ozhegova A., Зорина К. С., / Series SSRN "Available at SSRN 6108727". 2026.
Simplified tax regimes with explicit eligibility thresholds are a common tool which reduces tax burden but distorts firms’ behavior, creating local bunching just below the threshold. However, we show that when firms have access to business splitting their responses extend far beyond the local margin. Our model demonstrates that splitting reduces local bunching but amplifies ...
Added: January 21, 2026
Kuchumova (Paramonova) Y. A., Кумачева С. Ш., / Series SSRN "Available at SSRN 5312100". 2025.
In recent years, an emerging body of empirical research has shown that tax audits, in addition to recovering unpaid taxes (direct effect), increase future tax compliance (indirect or dynamic effect). This literature also suggests that updating expectations induced by audit experience plays an important role in explaining this indirect effect. However, exactly how taxpayers form ...
Added: January 21, 2026
Kuchumova (Paramonova) Y. A., / Series SSRN "Available at SSRN 5277500". 2025.
While the emerging empirical literature shows that collateral tax sanctions (CTSs) - such as driver’s license suspensions or passport denials - appear to be effective instruments to enforce tax debt collection, there are still few theoretical arguments to explain why. In this paper, I model enforcement of tax debt collection and provide a new rationale for why it could ...
Added: January 21, 2026
Dobrynskaya V. V., Tomtosov A., Речмедина С., / NRU HSE. Series WP BRP 60/FE/2017 "SERIES: FINANCIAL ECONOMICS". 2025.
We study the application of factor investing in the market for real estate (REITs). The analysis of traditional factor strategies, such as momentum, value, size and profitability, reveals their unstable and atypical behavior in comparison to the equity market, however, there is a strong momentum effect in the factor strategies. We propose a new dynamic ...
Added: January 21, 2026
Besstremyannaya G., Bakshuk M., / ЦЭМИ РАН. Серия 48 заседание "Сборник трудов Шаталинской школы-семинара". 2026.
В данной статье рассматривается реакция российских предприятий обрабатывающей промышленности на ужесточение экономических санкций с акцентом на период после 2022 года. Хотя санкции в целом негативно сказываются на экономическом росте и эффективности деятельности компаний, есть некоторые свидетельства того, что они также могут подталкивать компании к инновациям, а негативный эффект преодолевается при помощи адаптации компании. Исследование заполняет ...
Added: December 31, 2025
Besstremyannaya G., Новикова В., / ЦЭМИ РАН. Серия 48 заседание "Сборник трудов Шаталинской школы-семинара". 2026.
Защита прав интеллектуальной собственности является движущей
силой для формирования стимулов инновационной активности
предприятий. Законодательное закрепление правил пользования
результатами интеллектуальной деятельности и обеспечение их соблюдения
позволяет поддерживать баланс интересов создателей и пользователей
интеллектуальной
собственности.
Целью
проанализировать недостаточно изученную для регионов России связь
между экономическим ростом и защитой прав интеллектуальной
собственности с использованием двухшаговой регрессии. Результаты
моделирования оказались неоднозначными, однако, было доказано наличие
значимой связи между защитой прав интеллектуальной ...
Added: December 31, 2025
Meissner D., Salati Marcondes de Moraes G. H., Brandão Fischer B. et al., / NRU Higher School of Economics. Series WP BRP "Science, Technology and Innovation". 2025. No. WP BRP /STI/2025.
Innovation has long been at the center of debates in economics, management, and organizational studies. However, innovation is never free of uncertainty and risk. Every act of innovation implies a departure from established paths and a willingness to embrace the unknown. From the beginning it's never clear if there is an audience which appreciates the ...
Added: November 28, 2025
Shchiptsova A., Obersteiner M., / Series General Economics "arxiv.org". 2025.
The addition of phosphorus, in the form of mineral fertilizer, becomes necessary in most agricultural soils in order to achieve consistent high yield levels of intensive farming and maintain soil fertility. Recent consolidation of phosphate fertilizer industry has transformed fragmented trade into a single integrated global network, where a small group of large-scale companies dominates ...
Added: November 21, 2025
Andreev M., M. Udara Peiris, Alexander Shirobokov et al., Annals of Finance 2024 Vol. 20 P. 167–197
Commodity-exporting economies display procyclicality with the price of commodity exports. However, the evidence for the relative importance of commodity price shocks for aggregate fluctuations remains inconclusive. Using Russian data from 2001 to 2018 we estimate a small open economy New Keynesian model with a banking system and leveraged domestic firms who default on their unsecured ...
Added: February 19, 2025
Kapeliushnikov R., / Высшая школа экономики. Серия WP3 "Проблемы рынка труда". 2024. № WP3/2024/01.
The history of economic thought knows a few of heated methodological controversies (Methodenstreit), the most famous of which was a “battle” at the end of the 19th century between Austrian and New historical schools on proper methods of social sciences. Later at the turn of the 1930–1940s a dispute arose between J.M. Keynes, on the one ...
Added: December 18, 2024
Orlando G., Rossa F. D., , in: Nonlinearities in Economics An Interdisciplinary Approach to Economic Dynamics, Growth and Cycles.: Springer, 2021. P. 283–294.
After having illustrated in Chap. 13 the Harrod’s model and a chaotic specification of it, in this Chapter we are going to prove that (1) real data could be obtained by a suitable calibration of model’s parameters, (2) the calibrated model confirms theoretical predictions (Orlando and Della Rossa, Mathematics 7(6):524, 2019). ...
Added: March 6, 2024
Orlando G., Sportelli M., , in: Consequences of Social Transformation for Economic Theory. Proceedings of the 2022 Euro-Asian Symposium on Economic Theory (EASET), Ekaterinburg, Russia.: Ekaterinburg: Springer, 2022. P. 5–34.
This work summarizes recent advances in modelling and econometrics for alternative directions in macroeconomics and cycle theories. Starting from the definition of a cycle and continuing with a historical overview, some basic nonlinear models of the business cycle are introduced. Furthermore, some dynamic stochastic models of general equilibrium (DSGE) and autoregressive models are considered. Advances ...
Added: February 22, 2024
Araujo R. A., Chen P., Giuliani A. et al., Springer, 2021.
This interdisciplinary book argues that the economy has an underlying non-linear structure and that business cycles are endogenous, which allows a greater explanatory power with respect to the traditional assumption that dynamics are stochastic and shocks are exogenous.
The first part of this work is formal-methodological and provides the mathematical background needed for the remainder, while ...
Added: April 14, 2023
Pomazanov M. V., , in: The 8th International Conference on Information Technology and Quantitative Management (ITQM 2020 & 2021): Developing Global Digital Economy after COVID-19Vol. 199: The 8th International Conference on Information Technology and Quantitative Management (ITQM 2020 & 2021): Developing Global Digital Economy after COVID-19.: Manchester: Elsevier, 2022. P. 798–805.
The article considers the issue of quantifying the quality of discrimination (approval) in the retail portfolio segments based on current statistical data on the level of refuse of customers who applied to the bank, the current level of defaults and market data (credit history bureaus). The analysis of the economic efficiency of the practiced level ...
Added: November 18, 2022
Гусева М. Е., Silaev A. M., Вестник Санкт-Петербургского университета. Серия 5. Экономика 2021 Т. 37 № 2 С. 298–317
In the present research, the features of applying two models for estimating macroeconomic dynamic in the USA are investigated: Bayesian vector autoregression and Bayesian vector autoregression with Markov switching. The research goal is to identify periods, structure of fluctuations and the main directions of interaction of the variables (real US GDP and employment) using Bayesian ...
Added: October 13, 2021
Liudmila Kitrar, Tamara Lipkind, / NRU HSE. Series SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY, INNOVATION "SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY, INNOVATION". 2021. No. WP BRP 121/STI/2021.
The article proposes a new set of composite indicators-predictors in business tendency surveys, which allow identifying early information signals of a cyclical nature in the economic behavior of business agents. The main criterion for the efficiency of such indicators is their sensitivity to a cyclical pattern and changes in the dynamics of statistical referents. Statistically ...
Added: October 7, 2021
Mamonov M. E., Pestova A., Pankova V. et al., Экономическая политика 2020 Т. 15 № 5 С. 130–159
This paper provides a joint analysis of business and credit cycles with a focus on unobservable factors affecting both cycles, at the cross-country level. Using quarterly data for 19 developed countries and Russia for the period from 1994 to 2018, we build a system of two dynamic probit models, which includes a cross-correlation between the ...
Added: July 9, 2021
Kitrar L. A., Lipkind T. M., Вопросы статистики 2021 Т. 28 № 2 С. 24–41
The article proposes a new set of composite indicators-predictors in business tendency surveys, which allow identifying early information signals of a cyclical nature in the economic behavior of business agents. The main criterion for the efficiency of such indicators is their sensitivity to a cyclical pattern and changes in the dynamics of statistical referents. Property ...
Added: May 11, 2021