Контрсанкции на продовольственном рынке и благосостояние населения России

Экономическая политика. 2024. Т. 19. № 1. С. 30–65.

Скрыпник Д. В., Шаклеина М. В., Zaytsev A.

The article examines the impact of counter-sanctions (agri-food embargo) on the well-being of the Russian population. We use multi-stage methodology of econometric analysis that considers the objective difficulty of obtaining quantitative estimates of counter sanctions impact. Three groups of the population were distinguished in terms of welfare based on the data of the 23-rd wave of the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey: high, medium and low level of welfare.

By estimating the multiple-choice model on the clustered data, we find how the probability of belonging to one of the three welfare groups depends on consumer spending on goods that are subject to counter sanctions. Then the loss of purchasing power (change in real consumer spending) that three population groups experienced as a result of the imposition of counter-sanctions was calculated. In order to do this the estimates of the domestic basic foods’ production elasticities were obtained based on the structural demand-supply system. In addition, the food embargo contribution to the consumer price growth in individual food items in 2014 was evaluated. It was found that the food embargo additionally accelerated the price growth in individual goods by 1,5–22 percentage points.

By combining the estimates of the loss of purchasing power with the multiple-choice model estimates, the decline in the population wealth was assessed. Russian counter sanctions led to a moderate enlargement of the low welfare group by 1,52% or 2,223 million people. At the same time, the decline in the population wealth arises from the reduction of the medium wealth group by 1,16% while the high wealth group reduction is insignificant and equals to 0,36%.

Keywords: импортозамещение, purchasing power, модель множественного выбора, import substitution, покупательская способность, multiple choice model, structural demand-supply system, структурная форма уравнений спроса и предложения