Особенности постсоветской рождаемости на Северном Кавказе: инновации или межпоколенческая преемственность?

Демографическое обозрение. 2023. Т. 10. № 4. С. 121–151.

Kazenin K., Mitrofanova E.

The paper deals with special characteristics of fertility in the post-Soviet North-Western Caucasus (Russia) and their possible causes. Using the example of Dagestan and the republics of the North-Western Caucasus, three distinctive traits of fertility are considered: a higher proportion of third and subsequent children compared to Russia as a whole; shorter intervals between first and second births; and interethnic differences in mean numbers of children accumulated by certain ages. To study the degree to which these characteristics of post-Soviet fertility correlate with characteristics of fertility in the same regions in earlier periods, we examine the fertility of women of the 1920s-1970s birth cohorts of indigenous ethnicities of the North-Western Caucasus using the 1994 Russian Microcensus. Methods of descriptive statistics and proportional risk models are used to analyze Microcensus data. It is argued that a higher proportion of third and subsequent children as well interethnic differences in fertility were observed among the indigenous population of the regions under study in Soviet times as well. However, the shorter intervals between the first and the second births arguably are an «innovation» of the post-Soviet period. Possible explanations of these findings are discussed. 

Keywords: рождаемость, Северный Кавказ, этничность, fertility, North Caucasus, ethnicity, event history analysis, анализ наступления событий