• A
  • A
  • A
  • АБВ
  • АБВ
  • АБВ
  • A
  • A
  • A
  • A
  • A
Обычная версия сайта
  • RU
  • EN
  • HSE University
  • Publications
  • Book chapter
  • Modeling Social Self-Organization and Historical Dynamics. A General Approach
  • RU
  • EN
Расширенный поиск
Высшая школа экономики
Национальный исследовательский университет
Priority areas
  • business informatics
  • economics
  • engineering science
  • humanitarian
  • IT and mathematics
  • law
  • management
  • mathematics
  • sociology
  • state and public administration
by year
  • 2027
  • 2026
  • 2025
  • 2024
  • 2023
  • 2022
  • 2021
  • 2020
  • 2019
  • 2018
  • 2017
  • 2016
  • 2015
  • 2014
  • 2013
  • 2012
  • 2011
  • 2010
  • 2009
  • 2008
  • 2007
  • 2006
  • 2005
  • 2004
  • 2003
  • 2002
  • 2001
  • 2000
  • 1999
  • 1998
  • 1997
  • 1996
  • 1995
  • 1994
  • 1993
  • 1992
  • 1991
  • 1990
  • 1989
  • 1988
  • 1987
  • 1986
  • 1985
  • 1984
  • 1983
  • 1982
  • 1981
  • 1980
  • 1979
  • 1978
  • 1977
  • 1976
  • 1975
  • 1974
  • 1973
  • 1972
  • 1971
  • 1970
  • 1969
  • 1968
  • 1967
  • 1966
  • 1965
  • 1964
  • 1963
  • 1958
  • More
Subject
News
October 14, 2026
At HSE University–St Petersburg, Experts Discuss How AI Changes Tourist Routes and Cultural Heritage
Neural networks are no longer simple travel assistants; now they decide what to include on the route and what to skip. Artificial intelligence changes how people perceive a place and shapes the image of tourist centres. At the II International Scientific and Practical Conference ’Information Technologies in the Preservation and Promotion of Cultural Heritage,’ researchers discussed who controls algorithmic solutions and in what ways, and whether authentic traditions get lost in them.
October 12, 2026
Road Injuries Leading Cause of Death Among Men Aged 10 to 39
Worldwide, road injuries are the leading cause of death among males aged 10–39. An international team of researchers reached this conclusion as part of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023, analysing data from 204 countries between 1990 and 2023. Their findings have been published in The Lancet Public Health, with HSE University Professor Vasily Vlassov listed among the collaborators.
October 8, 2026
HSE Experts Take Part in 23rd Annual Meeting of Valdai Discussion Club
The 23rd Annual Meeting of the Valdai Discussion Club was held from September 28 to October 1, 2026 under the theme ‘Responsibility for the Future: Limits of the Possible, or Limitless Possibilities?’ The forum brought together 120 experts from 40 countries, including representatives of China, the United States, India, Brazil, the United Kingdom, Germany, Egypt, Iran, and Japan.

 

Have you spotted a typo?
Highlight it, click Ctrl+Enter and send us a message. Thank you for your help!

Publications
  • Books
  • Articles
  • Chapters of books
  • Working papers
  • Report a publication
  • Research at HSE

?

Modeling Social Self-Organization and Historical Dynamics. A General Approach

P. 253–307.
Akaev A., Malkov S., Bilyuga S., Malkov A., Jameelah Musieva, Korotayev A.

Akaev et al. outline their methodological approach to mathematical modeling of social self-organization and historical dynamics, which is used in the study of processes occurring in the world and in forecasting further world development. They describe basic equations (in the demographic, ecological, economic, technological, social, and political spheres) and the order of their use in modeling world dynamics. Based on these equations, a set of basic models has been developed that describes interactions in the “society—nature” system, as well as interactions within society between the main social groups (including economic and political interactions). Finally, Akaev et al. propose a technique for analyzing modeling results based on constructing and studying features of phase portraits of respective equation systems.

Language: English
Full text
DOI
Text on another site
Keywords: mathematical modelingHistorical Dynamicssocial self-organization

In book

Reconsidering the Limits to Growth. A Report to the Russian Association of the Club of Rome
Reconsidering the Limits to Growth. A Report to the Russian Association of the Club of Rome
Springer, 2023.
Similar publications
Interpreting antiviral effects: from experimental measurements to mechanistic viral dynamics
Nersisyan A., Frontiers in Molecular Biosciences 2026 Vol. 13 Article 1995001
Antiviral activity is commonly summarized using endpoint measures such as EC50 or EC90, yet these quantities emerge from a dynamic biological system and depend on viral replication kinetics, host-cell properties, experimental design, and the assay used to quantify infection. Infectious-virus titers, viral RNA, infected-cell fractions, viability measurements, and immune readouts capture different components of the ...
Added: October 15, 2026
Risk Assessment Models for Heated Tobacco Products
Maddalena L., Yildiz B., Del Vecchio Blanco F. et al., Risk Analysis 2026 Vol. 46 No. 4 P. 1–26
Heated tobacco products (HTPs) are marketed as alternatives to conventional cigarettes with a potential reduced risk profile. Yet, their actual impact on cancer and noncancer disease risk remains uncertain and requires rigorous quantitative assessment. In this study, we develop a unified and transparent computational framework for toxicological risk assessment of HTPs, integrating chemical emissions data ...
Added: September 22, 2026
A Two-Dimensional Axisymmetric Model for the Low Pressure Inductively Coupled RF Plasma with Gas Flow
Samsonova E. S., Zheltukhin V. S., Shemakhin A.Y, et al., High Energy Chemistry 2024 Vol. 58 No. Suppl. 3 P. S393–S399
A two-dimensional axisymmetric plasma model of a radio frequency induction discharge of low pressure (13–133 Pa) with gas blowing is presented. The model includes the Navier−Stokes equations, the continuity equations for ions, electrons, and metastable atoms, the equations for the conservation of energy of electrons and atoms in the ground state, and the Maxwell equations ...
Added: February 26, 2026
End-to-end Mathematical Model of a Radio-Frequency Inductive Jet Discharge of Lowered Pressure
Abdullin I. S., Zheltukhin V. S., A. Yu. Shemakhin, Journal of Engineering Physics and Thermophysics 2024 Vol. 97 No. 2 P. 480–493
A self-consistent end-to-end model defining a radio-frequency inductive jet discharge of lowered pressure (13.3–133 Pa) in an undisturbed gas flow and in the presence of a solid body has been proposed. The model comprises three interrelated submodels defining the parts of such a discharge, participating in its interaction with the material treated: the plasma jet, ...
Added: February 26, 2026
Методика оценки качества пассажирской авиатранспортной системы Российской Федерации
Урюпин И. В., Sukharev A., Vlasenko A., Информационные технологии и вычислительные системы 2023 № 3 С. 79–92
Transportation systems including air transportation play one of the most important roles in the economic and social development of any country. The effectiveness of the quality of control of such complex systems can be assessed according to various criteria, from the cost of developing infrastructure to the degree of satisfaction of the population with transport. ...
Added: February 24, 2026
Оценка прямых эксплуатационных расходов для перспективных воздушных судов с альтернативными типами силовых установок
Урюпин И. В., Vlasenko A., Экономика и математические методы 2024 Т. 60 № 2 С. 92–104
At present, in an unstable geopolitical situation, one of the most important tasks for the Russian Federation is the creation of advanced domestic aircraft that will not be inferior to its foreign counterparts. The cost of operating is the main criterion in the design of a new aircraft to ensure competitiveness in air transport systems. ...
Added: February 24, 2026
Оценка цены перспективного воздушного судна на основе его летно-технических характеристик
Урюпин И. В., Vlasenko A., Sukharev A., Экономика и математические методы 2025 Т. 61 № 4 С. 73–85
At present development of advanced civil aircraft is one of the key priorities in Russia. To become commercially successful advanced civil aircraft should provide competitive lifecycle costs. Accordingly, it requires balancing operational expenses and consumer-acceptable pricing during an aircraft design phase. However, price evaluation of a prospective aircraft with the analog method or the income ...
Added: February 24, 2026
Цивилизационные коды экономического роста: сравнительная модель и прогноз ВВП
Akaev A., Давыдова О. И., Korotayev A., Философия и общество 2025 № 4(117) С. 5–46
This article presents a comprehensive macroeconomic analysis of countries grouped into civilizational clusters based on a cultural-historical approach. The object of the study is the macroeconomic dynamics of states in the context of civilizational differences, and the subject is the model-based assessment and forecast of GDP growth rates for the period up to 2050. The ...
Added: February 24, 2026
Механизмы социальной самоорганизации
Plusnin J., Идеи и идеалы 2025 Т. 17 № 1-1 С. 105–128
The author proposes a hypothesis of two types of mechanisms of social self-organization: its launch and maintenance of structural integrity. These are two fundamentally different mechanisms. Social self-organization requires four mandatory conditions: (1) a set of interacting elements (individuals), homogeneous in origin and creating, due to their common habitat, a behavioral population system; (2) the ...
Added: February 12, 2026
Using User Feedback to Measure the Social Impact of Urban Digital Services: A Case Study of the Unified Resident Card of Saint-Petersburg
Nizomutdinov B., Olga G. Filatova, , in: Proceedings of the 2025 Communication Strategies in Digital Society Seminar (2025 ComSDS), 9 April 2025.: IEEE, 2025. P. 248–253.
The modern development of urban digital services greatly simplifies the interaction of citizens and authorities, making it urgent to find new approaches to analyze their effectiveness. The study examined user reviews of the Unified Map of St. Petersburg mobile application as a data source for evaluating the social effectiveness of electronic services. The main hypothesis ...
Added: January 13, 2026
Mathematical Modeling of Kelvin–Helmholtz Instability at Tangential Discontinuities in Partially Ionized Plasma: Application to Heliopause Dynamics
A. V. Titova, S. D. Korolkov, V. V. Izmodenov, Lobachevskii Journal of Mathematics 2025 Vol. 46 No. 9 P. 4526–4533
The stability of the heliopause, the tangential discontinuity separating the solar wind from the interstellar medium, is influenced by various processes, including the Kelvin–Helmholtz instability. This study investigates the role of charge exchange collisions between protons and hydrogen (H) atoms in reduction of the Kelvin–Helmholtz growth rate at the heliopause. Using a two-dimensional gasdynamic model ...
Added: January 12, 2026
Применение метода молекулярной динамики в задачах прогнозирования поведения материалов инженерных барьеров безопасности ПЗРО
Болдырев К. А., Glushak A., Pisarev V. et al., Радиоактивные отходы 2024 № 3 С. 83–95
This article overviews global and Russian atomistic modelling experience in exploring the properties of clay and cement-based materials for the long-term safety assessment of high-level waste (HLW) repositories. It explains the general concept of molecular dynamics simulation providing some case studies solved based on it. It discusses the accuracy of the calculated parameters and coefficients, ...
Added: September 30, 2024
Statistical model for assessing the reliability of non-destructive testing systems by solving inverse problems
Alexandrov A. E., S. P. Borisov, Bunina L. V. et al., Российский технологический журнал 2023 Vol. 11 No. 3 P. 56–69
Objectives. The wear monitoring of metal structural elements of power plants-in particular, pipelines of nuclear power plants-is an essential means of ensuring safety during their operation. Monitoring the state of the pipeline by direct inspection requires a considerable amount of labor, as well as, in some cases, the suspension of power plant operation. In order ...
Added: March 21, 2024
2022 4th International Conference on Control Systems, Mathematical Modeling, Automation and Energy Efficiency (SUMMA)
IEEE, 2022.
This collection of scientific papers contains articles written based on reports given at the conference "4th International Conference on Control Systems, Mathematical Modeling, Automation and Energy Efficiency (SUMMA)". This conference took place in Lipetsk (Russia) on November 9-11, 2022. The articles cover a wide range of topics corresponding to the following topics: I. Industrial Applied Mathematics and ...
Added: February 15, 2024
2023 5th International Conference on Control Systems, Mathematical Modeling, Automation and Energy Efficiency (SUMMA)
IEEE, 2023.
Added: February 14, 2024
Методика оценки качества пассажирской авиатранспортной системы Российской Федерации
Урюпин И. В., Sukharev A., Власенко А. О., Информационные технологии и вычислительные системы 2023 № 3 С. 79–92
Transportation systems including air transportation play one of the most important roles in the economic and social development of any country. The effectiveness of the quality of control of such complex systems can be assessed according to various criteria, from the cost of developing infrastructure to the degree of satisfaction of the population with transport. ...
Added: January 12, 2024
Trends in Biomathematics: Modeling Epidemiological, Neuronal, and Social Dynamics.
Springer, 2023.
This volume gathers together selected peer-reviewed works presented at the BIOMAT 2022 International Symposium, which was virtually held on November 7-11, 2022, with an organization staff based in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Topics touched on in this volume include infection spread in a population described by an agent-based approach; the study of gene essentiality via network-based ...
Added: November 7, 2023
Modeling Social Self-Organization and Historical Dynamics. An Overview
Sadovnichy V., Akaev A., Ilyin I. et al., , in: Reconsidering the Limits to Growth. A Report to the Russian Association of the Club of Rome.: Springer, 2023. P. 241–251.
Sadovnichy et al. present this chapter as an introductory one to the Mathematical Part which consists of nine chapters, including the present one. In the present chapter, Sadovnichy et al. explain the design of the Mathematical Part, which mathematical apparatus is used, how the chapters and conclusions of this part are connected with those in ...
Added: October 5, 2023
Emerging digital media culture in Russia: modeling the media consumption of Generation Z
Dunas D., Vartanov S., Journal of Multicultural Discourses 2020 Vol. 15 No. 2 P. 186–203
Digital media is now the dominant influence of peoples’ everyday lives and social behavior in the global culture of twenty-first century society. Contemporary media usage is associated with the need for affection and involvement in social and cultural communities and approval and integration into the emerging digital culture. Thus, it is possible to observe signs ...
Added: September 15, 2023
On the Limits and Best Practice for NB-Fi: A New LPWAN Technology
Bankov D., Levchenko P., Lyakhov A. et al., IEEE Internet of Things Journal 2023 Vol. 10 No. 14 P. 12352–12365
NB-Fi is a new low-power wide-area network technology, which has become widely used for smart cities, smart grids, the Industrial Internet of Things, and telemetry applications. Although many countries use NB-Fi, almost no papers study NB-Fi, and its peak performance is unknown. This article aims to fill this gap by analyzing this technology and studying ...
Added: September 4, 2023
Rapid multicomponent alloy solidification with allowance for the local nonequilibrium and cross-diffusion effects
Sobolev S. L., Tokmachev M., Kolobov Y. R., Materials 2023 Vol. 16 No. 4 Article 1622
Abstract: Motivated by the fast development of various additive manufacturing technologies, we consider a mathematical model of re-solidification of multicomponent metal alloys, which takes place after ultrashort (femtosecond) pulse laser melting of a metal surface. The re-solidification occurs under highly nonequilibrium conditions when solutes diffusion in the bulk liquid cannot be described by the classical diffusion equation of parabolic ...
Added: February 15, 2023
HISTORY & MATHEMATICS. HISTORICAL AND TECHNOLOGICAL DYNAMICS: FACTORS, CYCLES, AND TRENDS
Volgograd: Uchitel Publishing House, 2022.
The present Yearbook is subtitled Historical and Technological Dynamics: Factors, Cycles, and Trends. Its articles demonstrate different forms, patterns, and modes of evolutionary development of societies and their subsystems both over very long periods (in fact, the whole historical process) and over relatively short time intervals. We believe that without an in-depth analysis of the ...
Added: December 14, 2022
Идентификация автора текста в сетевой коммуникации
Romanova T. V., Khomenko A., Вестник Волгоградского государственного университета. Серия 2: Языкознание 2022 Т. 21 № 3 С. 143–157
The article deals with general and particular patterns of solving the identification problem of attributional linguistics on the texts of written network communication. The problem of determining text authorship is solved by comparing a disputed text, the author of which, according to the conditions of the experiment, is unknown, with texts, the authors of which ...
Added: March 16, 2022
  • About
  • About
  • Key Figures & Facts
  • Sustainability at HSE University
  • Faculties & Departments
  • International Partnerships
  • Faculty & Staff
  • HSE Buildings
  • HSE University for Persons with Disabilities
  • Public Enquiries
  • Studies
  • Admissions
  • Programme Catalogue
  • Undergraduate
  • Graduate
  • Exchange Programmes
  • Summer University
  • Summer Schools
  • Semester in Moscow
  • Business Internship
  • Research
  • International Laboratories
  • Research Centres
  • Research Projects
  • Monitoring Studies
  • Conferences & Seminars
  • Academic Jobs
  • Yasin (April) International Academic Conference on Economic and Social Development
  • Media & Resources
  • Publications by staff
  • HSE Journals
  • Publishing House
  • iq.hse.ru: commentary by HSE experts
  • Library
  • Economic & Social Data Archive
  • Video
  • HSE Repository of Socio-Economic Information
  • HSE1993–2026
  • Contacts
  • Copyright
  • Privacy Policy
  • Site Map
Edit