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Modeling Social Self-Organization and Historical Dynamics. An Overview
Sadovnichy et al. present this chapter as an introductory one to the Mathematical Part which consists of nine chapters, including the present one. In the present chapter, Sadovnichy et al. explain the design of the Mathematical Part, which mathematical apparatus is used, how the chapters and conclusions of this part are connected with those in the previous chapters of the present report, etc. Sadovnichy et al. also show what this Mathematical Part is about, why it is needed, how it is organized, and so on. The Mathematical Part of the present Report to the Russian Association of the Club of Rome mostly presents results of mathematical modeling of various aspects of historical, present, and future reality and forecasts, but it also includes important verbal qualitative sections. Its necessity is dictated by the fact that, although in the previous parts of the present report, Sadovnichy et al. have realized most of its goals, however, in order for its conclusions to become more convincing and scientific, they must also be supported by logical and mathematical modeling. This Mathematical Part is called “Modeling Social Self-Organization and Historical Dynamics—from Agrarian to Cybernetic W-Society.” This name reflects its structure, since the chapters of this part consider social systems of the past, present, and future. On the other hand, it implements important methodological assumptions. In accordance with these assumptions, the objects of research and modeling in the Mathematical Part are the basic processes (including social and political ones) that determine features of interaction between various spheres of life at respective phases of historical development. The logic of the Mathematical Part leads us from ancient societies to modern and future ones, through understanding how phase transitions occur from one type of society to another, and allows us to make forecasts about the future society. The chapters of this part demonstrate how we see the combining of the world systems, historical and evolutionary approaches, a systematic view of society, and mathematical modeling within a single research program.
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