Глобальные трансформации Мир-Системы и контуры нового мирового порядка

Политическая наука. 2024. № 2. С. 124–150.

Grinin L. E., Гринин А. Л., Korotayev A.

The article examines the processes of transformation of the world system, which find expression in large, actually stadium changes. The world-System is in a phase preceding the transition to a new qualitative state, with a change in the balance of power in a variety of aspects and parameters. As part of the analysis conducted in the article, it is noted that such changes occur rarely, once every few decades, and periods of profound changes can last a long time. The authors suggest that the period of reconfiguration of the world system and the formation of a new world order will take at least two and a half decades, and possibly more. At the same time, the authors conclude that this will be a turbulent period with further aggravation of contradictions and a possible transition to armed clashes. The important idea of the article is that these fundamental transformations occur as a result of not only changes in international relations and the balance of power in the military–technological potential of countries and the geopolitical situation as a whole (which is mandatory), but also the accumulation of major qualitative changes in almost all spheres: from demographic to cultural, from technological to ideological. The article analyzes the dynamics of such changes over the past decades.

Keywords: USA, World-System, geopolitical rivalry, мировой порядок, the World-System leader, world order, Мир-Система, мир-системный лидер, the balance of power, reconfiguration World-System, changing the world order, реконфигурация Мир-Системы, смена мирового порядка, баланс сил, США, геополитическое соперничество